Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry

Discussion in 'Trading' started by damir00, Sep 1, 2003.

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  1. IF what? I can read exactly one realistic IF in there and its answer is simple indeed.

    "IF he post trades in real time"? Gosh wow, how is EVER going to pull that off!


    Hell, damir is prepared to let you know a WEEK AHEAD OF TIME when he's going to be entering. Lol. How much more "real time" can you get? Then all he'd have to do is set up a 'code word', like 'EXIT', or even just 'X' (to save typing), and hit [enter] and it's right there on the chat and can be checked on the chat log. Then, whatever the market was at that time was his exit price. How in the world is he going to "fake out" anyone with this?

    "IF the trades can be verified"?

    Well, uhh, you have the entry and you have the exit, what else do you want?

    "IF a test for statistical significance can be met"

    Ok, so the more trades the better. No kidding. That's hardly an impediment to getting started though.
    #231     Sep 5, 2003
  2. PetaDollar

    PetaDollar Moderator

    I won't bother with any philosophical b.s., just facts.

    First I will agree with Damir, then disagree.

    Agreed: exits are so critical, that they make or break the method.

    Disagreed: that a carefully chosen entry cannot enhance the success of the method.

    "Proof": I trade pullbacks. While I was forward testing my method, I was curious about which sort of time frame(s) would be best to use. I traded about 5 different time frames and logged every trade. Result: The probability for a winning trade, with my method, is much higher (about 35%) on a 200 tick chart than a 30 tick chart.

    Of course we can't prove anything rigorously like in mathematics, but my empirical evidence is good enough for me.

    P.S. I agree that a good trader could be profitable with a random entry and discretionary exit. In fact I do this exercise on the simulator all the time. It lets me concentrate on feeling the critical moments after the trade is opened. I rarely hit my initial stop. Rather I cut the trade off if it doesn't go my way right off.
    #232     Sep 5, 2003
  3. Bolts


    Heh, funny thread. :p I'd be happy to see Damir just call some live trades in a chatroom. It won't prove anything, but he always has some interesting ideas and I'd like to follow along. Anyone can judge for themselves. I don't see why this has to be some kind of officious contest. Too many uptighties around here.
    #233     Sep 5, 2003
  4. Folks we seem to have hit a stone wall on commentary.

    I am closing this thread, as it appears damir is about to begin a new one that should bring into focus more clearly his methods of trade management.

    Please feel free to start a new thread explorig the topic of this one.
    #234     Sep 5, 2003
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