Nearly Random Entry vs a High Probability Entry

Discussion in 'Trading' started by damir00, Sep 1, 2003.

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  1. damir00

    damir00 Guest

    i see this statement - and variants like it - posted all over ET and i have to admit, i don't get it. pick a random spoos intraday chart from a random number of days ago. pick a random tick on that intraday chart. randomly pick long or short.

    now follow that trade out.

    the reality of the market is that 99% of ticks will provide both a profitable short AND a profitable long. how much higher probability are you looking for?

    you already have what you think you need. the problem isn't finding a way to enter the market - you can enter it anytime you want - the problem is figuruing out how to *exit* the market. anybody - absolutely anybody - can pick successful entry points because almost every entry point has the potential to be a successful entry point.

    there is no edge in picking entries, none whatsoever. the only edge out there is money management, and the solution to that comes from you as a trader: what are you comfortable risking, holding etc.

    you have to answer that first.
  2. dbphoenix


    This is the sort of nonsense that sends novice traders off into useless directions that will waylay them for months, if not years.

    Yes, a true random entry will have an equal probability of going up or down. But so what? Unless you're going to scalp ticks, this information is of no use whatsoever.

    As for "no edge in picking entries", perhaps not, if you're comfortable with very wide stops. Or no stops at all. And you don't address the issue of probability in your system so that your entry is made in the direction of whatever trend you're playing.

    I sure would like to see somebody initiate and maintain a journal of this "entry doesn't matter as long as your exits are good" style of trading over several months.
  3. damir00

    damir00 Guest

    my man, you SO do not understand. you are completely - and i mean *completely* - in the dark on this. i'm talking new-moon middle of the forest with a blindfold kind of in the dark.

    that is *exactly* what my journal is doing. like i said, you are so in the dark on the entire subject it's scary. you are living with some serious conceptual filters, db, which is a shame because you are clearly not a dolt.

    if you think you're up the challenge, i'll create a new journal were it will be RandomEntryBoy vs dbphoenix. everyday you post your trades in realtime, but to make it even easier for you i'll post the randomentries *before the market opens*.

    i'll wager you any amount you care to wager your "edge" is in fact a negative one and that the random entries will produce results that absolutely wipe the floor with your results.

    you up for the challenge?
  4. dbphoenix


    I see nothing about random selection in your journal, but then it is rather long. Perhaps you could point me in the right direction?
  5. damir00

    damir00 Guest

    it's all there. like i said, you have some seriously strong conceptual filters.

    so are you up to the head-to-head challenge with RandomEntryboy? i'll even post the script that generates the entries, anyone who wants to can run it at their end and post the results, and i'm perfectly happy wagering that the external submissions will also soundly whoop your returns.


    you game or not?

    it's a binary question: i'm heading out for dim sum, so you have time to think it over.
  6. mark1

    mark1 Guest

    It's a great opportunity DB, I hope you won't let it go :cool:
  7. dbphoenix


    All where?

    The amount of money you make vs the amount of money I make is irrelevant to the question, just as much as whether a scalper makes more or less than a trend-trader. You're saying, in so many words, that looking for a high-probability system is a waste of time since each entry has an equal probability of going up or down. This may or may not be true depending on whether the selection of the entry was random or not. According to the example you gave in your post, the entry seems to be randomly selected. However, I suggest that this approach is not what you're doing in your journal.

    You also contend that entries are immaterial, that exits and money management are all that matters. However, you provide no evidence that this is the case, perhaps because you confuse "knowability" with "probability". As for "almost every entry point has the potential to be a successful entry point", that's self-evident, as is its opposite. But, again, you're mixing up probability, knowability and randomness.

    You can challenge me to all the contests you like, but that has nothing to do with whether or not your advice to Solace is valid.
  8. Split from Trading Methods thread.

    "RandomEntryBoy"! Now that is funny!!!
  9. exits and money management are important, but your claim that there is no edge in picking entries is absolute NONSENSE. if you disagree, you simply do not know what you are talking about, period.
  10. mark1

    mark1 Guest

    and can you show us a report of your successful method picking entries to justify your statement? :eek:
    #10     Sep 1, 2003
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