Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Sarasota, Jan 8, 2004.
i dont know if it is but top calling in this market has been painful for those trying. not long ago it had to be the top because the vix was low. that was 1000+ points ago. dont even hear vix mentioned anymore.
a liquidity driven market ignores chart signals on the way down and on the way up.
as the homebuilders proved today an event can knock this market down. the problem is you cant game events very well. i think you have to wait for selling to show its hand.
to short this market your timing has to be perfect and you have to take profits fast. the right event could change everything but we dont see it yet.
A runaway bull market with climax top somewhere down the road as possible scenario?
There will have to be a climax top eventually, but not until we run out of buyers. That hasn't happened yet.
Not sure what will happen, which is why I placed the question mark at then end of the title of the post. Maybe not even an "intermediate top", but could be some sort of multi-day pullback. And of course, I am not automatically going short up at the top, but other things obviously have to happen before I pull the trigger.
If the Japanese are correct about nine updays, tomorrow/Monday could be interesting.
Then there are the channels . . .
Look at the very big volume. How long can this go on?
is now down into the 14.46 area, dropping another .39 today
Bradley Cycle has the next possible turning point at:
Separate names with a comma.