I got a buy-in alert from IB for NBG yesterday. The stock had easy borrow for months than all of the sudden there was a shortage of shares, I suspect this news got leaked
My 2 Euro cents for what it is worth: Reuters is reporting the two banks are having board meetings, so let's assume that a deal will be done. Also it was halted at 7.08am in New York. http://nasdaqtrader.com/Trader.aspx?id=TradeHalts As above, NBG (ETE) market cap is 956.09 million shares * 2.10 = 2,007.79 million EUR EUROB Market cap 552.95 * 1.15 = 635.89 million EUR So obviously NBG is the larger of the two. Previous experience in 2011 (NBG bid for Alpha Bank) suggests that the initial reaction is for share prices of both banks to rise. This is confirmed with premarket trade in NBG, in the last hour it was bid in the 2.70s. However, the terms of any deal have not yet been announced, and it's reasonable to assume that if a merger happens, the terms would be more favourable for EUROB (target) rather than NBG (predator). Short-term: Expect both NBG and EUROB share prices to rise, maybe by 10% when the halt ends. Long-term: In all likelihood the recapitalization of both NBG and EUROB will have a far more significant impact on the share prices of both companies. Also keep in mind that EUROB has a 3.97 billion EUR capital hole that needs filling. I am still short NBG. For what it's worth, a similar gap higher in late August 2011 (I think this was the announcement of a NBG and Alpha Bank deal?) turned out to be a blowoff top from which NBG has not yet recovered.
Maybe, but it could just be that the borrow is tighter than normal because it has risen from 1.12 to 2.50 (and even higher premarket today). As I've said before, and as the Seeking Alpha article http://seekingalpha.com/article/876...sk-reward-short-trade-before-recapitalization said, at these higher levels, the short idea carries less risk and greater reward.
"Trade in top Greek banks halted after merger talk" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/trade-top-greek-banks-halted-135415084.html An NBG official said a statement would be issued later Friday. *** Also the halt code on the NYSE is T1, "news pending"
EUROB announcement http://www.ase.gr/content/en/Announcements/CompaniesPress/Press.asp?press_id=158900 PDF file: http://www.ase.gr/Files/For AseSite 2012_XA_A_21352_2.pdf NBG offers to buy EUROB, 58 shares of NBG for each 100 shares of EUROB. Based on last traded price for NBG of 2.10 EUR, this is only a 5% premium to the last traded price for EUROB of 1.15 EUR.
NBG announcement http://www.ase.gr/content/en/Announcements/CompaniesPress/Press.asp?press_id=158902 PDF File http://www.ase.gr/content/gr/announcements/Files/121004 Announcement VTO Launch EN (Final).pdf **** "The completion of the Tender Offer (the âCompletionâ) is subject to customary regulatory and corporate approvals, including the approval from the extraordinary general meeting of the NBG shareholders. "The period for acceptance of the Tender Offer will commence on the date of publication of the information memorandum relating to the Tender Offer (the âInformation Memorandumâ). The results of the Tender Offer will be published within two business days from the end of the acceptance period as prescribed under the Law. "The Tender Offer is for 552,948,427 Shares in total, which represent 100% of Eurobankâs paid-up common registered share capital and voting rights as of the date of this announcement (the âTender Offer Sharesâ). "The Tender Offer will become effective upon the approval of the Information Memorandum (which sets out all the terms of the Tender Offer) by the HCMC. "The Tender Offer is conditional on the satisfaction of the following conditions:  The approval by the Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders, which will take place on 30 October 2012, of the share capital increase of the Offeror"
Deadline for Greek reforms extended (again) to Thursday 18 October: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/greece-gets-reform-deadline-20121009-27a2l.html "Eurogroup chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said eurozone ministers agreed in talks attended by the IMF that "before the next disbursement," worth 31.5 billion euros ($40.6 billion), the Greek government "should demonstrate" that it can "implement" planned reforms such as privatisations "by 18 October at the latest"." http://news.ph.msn.com/business/eurogroup-gives-greece-til-eu-summit-to-implement-reforms Europe meetings calendar: 3 September 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/key-upcoming-events 29 August 2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/complete-ranked-world-calendar-events-end-year
NBG shareholder meetings, mainly related to share issuance required for EUROB takeover: INVITATION: EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETING OF SHAREHOLDERS Tuesday, 30 October 2012, 12:00 (1st Repeat EGMS: Monday, 12 November 2012, 12:00; 2nd Repeat EGMS: Friday, 23 November 2012, 12:00) Can be found at NBG web site www.nbg.gr then via Group > Investor Relations > Press Releases > 2012