Still waiting for details of Greek bank recapitalizations. This article www.seekingalpha.com/article/876191...sk-reward-short-trade-before-recapitalization is similar to my views on why NBG is a low risk, high reward short opportunity. The two articles below suggest that the recap details won't be finalized until the Troika disburse the next 31.5 billion EUR of aid to Greece. This disbursement is contingent on Greece agreeing to conditions such as austerity measures. "Seeking Aid, Greek Coalition Partners Strike Deal" By ALKMAN GRANITSAS and STELIOS BOURAS http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443916104578021882943321370.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...aders-agree-on-bulk-of-budget-package-1-.html The disbursement (and therefore recapitalization details) could come as soon as next week, however, given that the details were meant to be published in May, it wouldn't surprise me if there were further delays measured in months rather than days or weeks. Some further discussion also added in Daal's thread here: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3638961#post3638961
Creeping one step closer to release of the 31.5 billion EUR, which would mean it is closer to finding out about recapitalization details: http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/09/29/uk-eurozone-greece-germany-idUKBRE88S08M20120929 "Greece sure to get next aid tranche - German magazines"
A more cautious article from AFP: http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/greek-pm-stresses-urgency-austerity-173116421.html "Greek PM stresses urgency of austerity deal"
This article says it is unlikely progress will be made before the end of this week: "Samaras, Stournaras to resume talks in Athens with the troika" http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite1_1_01/10/2012_463852
"Greek central bank cuts capital adequacy requirement" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/03/greece-banks-idUSL6E8L32Q320121003 The central bank has abandoned the core Tier 1 ratio requirement of 9 percent effective Sept 30 and instead adopted a total capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent until their recapitalization is complete, the official told Reuters, declining to be named. {snip} That aid has been delayed pending a review by the troika of European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund inspectors on the country's progress in meeting the terms of its bailout. ******* Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) http://www.hfsf.gr/en/news.htm
It looks like further patience may be required while we wait for Greece to receive the 31.5 billion EUR bailout. "Greece, Troika Remain Apart on Cuts" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443493304578034523749758486.html?mod=googlenews_wsj By STELIOS BOURAS And PHILIP PANGALOS ATHENSâGreece's efforts to clinch a deal with its international creditors on a package of cuts by the end of this week are under threat, with the government saying Wednesday that a "fairly big" gap still separates the country from its lenders, while a fresh dispute emerged over proposed labor-market changes. {snip} Government officials now say that Europe might hold an extraordinary summit in November to approve the â¬31 billion ($40 billion) aid installment, most of which will go toward recapitalizing the country's banks, under Greece's â¬173 billion bailout. *** Debt crisis: as it happened, October 3, 2012 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/ http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ebt-crisis-as-it-happened-October-3-2012.html 17.43 Another Greek official told AFP that the country hopes to reach accord with international creditors by Monday. He said: Quote More meetings will be held...we will know where we are on Monday [when eurozone finance ministers are to meet in Luxembourg]. 17.15 Greece's talks with European debt inspectors are progressing well, but there is still "a large gap" between the two parties, according to the country's finance minister. Yannis Stournaras told reporters: Quote Discussions with the troika are on a good track. There is still a large gap, we are trying to reach a compromise to seal a deal.
"Greece's National Bank, Eurobank in merger talks -report" http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/05/nbg-eurobank-idUSL6E8L528U20121005 Oct 5 (Reuters) - Two of Greece's biggest banks, National Bank and Eurobank, are in talks over a merger that would create the country's biggest lender, news website To Vima reported on Friday, citing sources. ******* Here's a novel idea: how about instead of spending time considering potential mergers, NBG could raise some capital to buy back the 7.43 billion EUR provided by the government earlier in the year.
NBG halted in Greece: Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ETE:GA Trading has been suspended for ETE:GA
Eurobank http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EUROB:GA 552.95 million shares outstanding recent share price 1.15 EUR Market cap 552.95 * 1.15 = 635.89 million EUR Capital requirement is at least 3.97 billion EUR http://www.eurobank.gr/online/home/generic.aspx?id=30&mid=360&lang=en (source: explanatory notes from Q1 financial statement, page 8 onwards) National Bank of Greece http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ETE:GA Market cap 956.09 million shares * 2.10 = 2,007.79 million EUR Capital requirement is at least 7.43 billion EUR source: Q1 2012 financial report
October 5, 2012 Back of the envelope calculations on the NBG-EFG tie up http://doukas.posterous.com/back-of-the-envelope-calculations-on-the-nbg