http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ Barack Obama 79.0% +8.0 since Oct. 24 Mitt Romney 21.0% -8.0 since Oct. 24 Electoral Mitt Romney 237.6 -9.6 since Oct. 24 Barack Obama 300.4 +9.6 since Oct. 24 Electoral
Obama is winning early voting http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/24/obama_holds_big_lead_among_early_voters.html Obama Holds Big Lead Among Early Voters The latest Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll finds President Obama had a lead of 53% to 42% among the 17% of the surveyed registered voters who said they had already cast their vote. In the crucial swing state of Ohio, a new Time poll finds Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney among those who have voted early, 60% to 30%. http://news.yahoo.com/obama-campaign-sees-early-vote-edge-215445195--abc-news-politics.html Obama Campaign Sees Early-Vote Edge DAYTON, O.H. - President Obama's top campaign advisers today said early-voting returns in several battleground states show Democrats with an edge over Republicans in courting so-called "sporadic voters," those Americans who would not otherwise vote and could tilt the scale in a tight race. "We are outperforming our early-vote margins in key states compared to 2008. We're ahead of where we were against McCain, and more importantly, we're ahead of Mitt Romney," said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina on a conference call with reporters. "Romney may be winning more raw votes than McCain did at this time, but look the facts are important here. And the numbers tell a very clear story." Messina said that the campaign's growth in early-vote margins, borne out both in state election data and in public polling of early voters, is a net gain for Democrats since many early voters are people who likely would not have otherwise voted. The process was widely credited with helping Obama win several swing states in 2008. "Early vote isn't only taking a finite number of voters and only changing the day they vote. â¦. What early vote does is help us get out our low propensity voters-voters called sporadic voters-which broadens our universe and frees up more 'get out the vote' resources later, especially on election day," Messina claimed. "This is about increasing the overall share of people, who may be drop out voters. And our numbers and public numbers are showing that more Obama sporadic voters are voting than Romney sporadic voters, which is a very big piece of business for the total turnout," he said. Public polls show Obama holds double-digit leads among people who have already voted in Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin, states where in-person early voting is allowed. Obama also leads in North Carolina. The U.S. Elections Project at George Mason University tracks all public early voting data HERE . The data are not considered good indicators of the ultimate electoral outcome in any given state, but do provide a snapshot of voter engagement and the campaigns' ability to bank votes ahead of time. "Here is the most important thing to remember 14 days out: We're tied or ahead in every battleground state, and we're not leaving any place where we are tied or ahead," he said. "Romney has not been able to knock us out of a single battleground, and we've forced him to spend more and more resources in states like North Carolina that the Romney campaign has said they wanted locked up a long time ago." http://www.examiner.com/article/obama-continues-to-lead-nevada-early-vote Obama continues to lead in Nevada early vote With just two days left before the end of early voting in Nevada, Democrats are leading Republicans 45 percent to 38 percent, giving President Obama the edge over Mitt Romney going into the November 6 Election Day. As of the latest count from the secretary of state's office, 533,064 people had voted statewide, which is about 42 percent of the state's electorate. Of those, 235,514 were registered Democrats, while registered Republicans numbered 200,678. Other registrants, including independents, totaled 96,872. The Democrats had a 90,000-registration advantage going into the early voting period, which began October 20. Republicans have been steadily catching up as more party members went out to vote. One of Wednesday's early voters was Sen. Harry Reid, the U.S. Senate majority leader, who figured in an accident Friday at a Las Vegas freeway. In his first public appearance since that accident, Reid told the Las Vegas Sun, âIâm OK,â while rubbing the right side of his rib cage, where he said he was still sore. âThereâs not much I canât do, except Iâm not much of a hugger,â he said. Reid was involved in a five-car pileup Friday in the northbound lanes of Interstate 15, near the Sahara Avenue exit. The senator said that he expects that turn-out for the early voting would reach about 70 percent of the electorate. To meet that prediction, by Election Day, more than 350,000 Nevadans will have to vote between now and the close of early voting Friday, November 2. Nevada Secretary of State Ross Miller said that nearly half a million people have so far turned out to vote in person, by mail, and by absentee ballot. Miller said more than 45 percent of those voters were registered Democrats while 37 percent were registered Republicans. Another 17.8 percent marked ânoneâ or âother.â Obama won Nevada, which has six electoral college votes, in 2008 over John McCain with more than 120,000 votes. âTurnout is good, and we expect by Election Day to have about 70 to 75 percent of the vote already in,â Reid said. http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region..._beach/local-gop-memo-dems-cleaning-our-clock Florida GOP memo: Democrats are 'cleaning our clock' WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. -- A memo obtained by NewsChannel 5's Evan Axelbank, from an adviser to a Florida GOP campaign, says that the Democratic turnout effort is "cleaning our clock." VIEW THE MEMO HERE: (http://media.wptv.com/photo/j.jpg) The memo says, "The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling." It also says, "Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races." At the Delray Beach early voting site, we saw a Democratic campaign operative, who was handing out sheets printed with the Democratic slate. "Alright Democrats, you've got your cheat sheet here," said Robert Murstein, a Democratic party volunteer. Murstein is carrying out his party's game plan. "Just to get as many people in the process as possible," said Murstein. During the first three days of countywide early voting, 60 percent of ballots cast have been by Democrats, 22 percent by Republicans. That's a 38 point edge, even though Democrats only hold a 14 point lead in registrations.