Navistar to be Delisted

Discussion in 'Options' started by jsmee, Jan 30, 2007.

  1. jsmee

    jsmee

    Today is the appeal hearing, and should be the final appeal, that Navistar gets to try to avoid NYSE delisting. Anybody out there remember Cendant (Hertz, Avis ZRent a car, etc.), it got cut IN HALF and lost $14 Billion in Market Cap when it got Delisted from NYSE. This company just failed AGAIN, 2 years now to file 10K. The CEO in the Sunday 1/28/2007 Chicago Tribune claims they should remain on NYSE because they fall within the "National Interest" or Fannie Mae rule exception to delisting because they build 65% of the school buses in this country and they have a growing military business. Well, check it out people and let me know what you think because $40 Feb puts (stock is @ $43.50)
    are cheap at $0.70. If delisting happens stock goes to Pink sheets and most institutional investors have to dump it then.
     
  2. (1) If the delisting from the NYSE happens, does NAV go to Nasdaq or the Pink Sheets? (2) When Cendant lost half of its value in one day, ( in the mid-1990's), was it really because of the announcement of accounting irregularities? 3) NAV has rallied from ~$20 to ~$40 per share recently. Either you're unaware of some major bullish info OR you're on the verge of becoming a superstar forecaster. (4) I'll guess that NAV will trade slightly lower after confirmation of any de-listing and then move higher. We'll see what happens.
     
  3. jsmee

    jsmee

    If this stock is delisted, it goes to PINK SHeets and NOT OTCBB, and here is the real killer. ALmost every mutual fund holder has to sell, because they are not allowed to hold pink sheet stocks as dictated by their charters. As to Cendant, the stock's losses overnight coincided with a simultaneous announcement of a FORMAL SEC inquiry into their accounting fraud at the same time with the delisting. NAV is currently being informally investigated by the SEC but they have not gone formal yet as they have given the company time based on its assurances that it will produce properly re-audited and compliant restated financials. They are over 18 months into this and HAVE PRODUCED NOTHING BUT PROMISES.
    Stock has been getting pumped up by the likes of Mario Gabelli, mutual fund manager and frequent Barrons/CNBC contributor. I am sure Gabelli was probably one of the recent big block purchasers of the Feb. 40 puts. Stock was featured in this weeks Barrons and the whole diesel engine sector was recommended last week by JP Morgan who just so happened to have signed on to refinance $1.5 Billion of NAV's debt. Why did NAV refinance the debt, you should ask ?
    NOT to get a better rate, they got a worse rate. It was because they had to in order to avoid having their bonds DEFAULT because they have failed AGAIN to file 10-K and properly audited quarterlies going back 2 YEARS. People are pumping this stock up on takeover rumors. If you READ, the Barrons piece you will see that. You will also see if you read the article that others in the roundtable seriously questioned Gabelli about this recommendation citing the alleged accounting fraud, no visibility in their prior or future financials, and the pending delisting risk. The 40 put is cheap at $0.45, low - risk, HIGH reward.
     
  4. Is it possible that mutual funds and other "prudent" long-term investors have already sold out their shares in anticipation of a delisting to "hot money" hedge funds who'll want to force some type of reorganization?
     
  5. CMVT got delisted a few days ago, which means it got kicked out of the S&P 500, too. Although it went down 5% premarket the day it was announced, it recovered almost completely later that day.