I took a small position (one QG contract) awhile ago around $3.6 thinking it could go to maybe $4. Kinda hitting the puking point here. I guess that's when you're supposed to double down, but I'm not going to do that. The whole contract is only worth $7000, so what's the most I could lose? I think I'll just sit on this a little while longer. Although this contango is kind of worrying me if I want to keep this as a couple month trade. The bigger question I have though is with natural gas so low, why are we not trying to use it more? It's not that hard to have natural gas cars etc. It's a perfectly legitimate fuel source and at the moment, very cheap.
I agree. Start with fleet trucks over the road, begin to build out infastracture. No politician is afaraid of "low" prices, so nothing will get done from a plitical standpoint. The high prices are what get the phones ringing and all the talking heads going.... you can have all the gas in the world, in a couple years the infrastructure to move the volumes will be antiqated, then it will bring in some volatility... until then who knows..... look at spreads, that where the big bets are placed
re calling the bottom, i won't repeat what i already posted but i'll add this - you can put on whatever trade you want as long as you have an exit strategy. NG is at 2.7 so say you say "ok this is a bottom" just put a stop a couple ATR below. re it going back to 14, for the love of God, pls stop thinking like this. that is NO diff than looking at a bombed out dot com trading at $0.50 and saying "if/when it goes back to its all time high of 175 i'll buy this country". repeat after me, price never has to do anything - esp go back to a ridic high level. re tax shelters - i don't have any advice re this but if you really want to save money w/o incurring the wrath of the feds, only trade 1256 cars and move to a zero income tax state like TX.
I was interested in nat gas at much higher levels and but am much less interested now. Yes, we may bounce soon, but the chart and fundamentals suggest that we will be staying at low prices for a long time. Better to look for stocks that will benefit from these low prices. I am also interested in buying a home compressor (FSYS) and a Honda Civic GX. Imagine never having to go to the gas station .
Yes, I know, and that's what I do anyway. I've been able to cover the losses with other wins. My comments about going back to 14 dollars is simply an observation about past price action (there have been several bubbles to this level) and in literature and in a practical sense, when costs of a commodity get too low, production slows, because the producers profits aren't as great... and the opposite is true.. too high and demand eventually drops. The ultimate factor in trading is price. If I don't see favorable price action, it's my job to protect myself if I'm wrong. You always trade your beliefs about the market. Good thing is I do live in TX... forgot no income tax Why would a company want to sell a product that a lot of people know is cheap? Profit margins would decrease. Look at other energy commodity prices. Do you think the filthy rich oil companies want to switch to a cheap form of fuel?? This country was created based on this principle (private enterprise) but it can and will screw over the consumer, and general public. You will always pay more for something than it actually costs. Otherwise there'd be no business. A good movie about fuel and alternatives is Gas Hole... there have been alternatives for decades... I think if we move to NG as main source of car fuel, we can surpass previous price cielings.
3.54 area tgt on this one. inverse risk reward though, not suggested for weak stomachs. Looking for a 30%, willing to risk 36% ie a full buck