I am a self-described macro trader that trades fx, rates, commodities, and stock indeces. I have recently expanded into nat gas and have taken a nice pounding. I am at a loss for what drives nat gas. It ain't oil and it ain't risk appettite..or at least not on the time frames I am looking at. Anyone out there have some insights/suggestions for a newbie..beyond staying away?
It is all those drivers, although at different times. Sometimes its phys. driving the market, sometimes its dollar and CL. As random as any other market- they are all BS, just tools to buy and sell.... gas has enough liquidity to trade for sure. Volatility is good... but random as any other
thanks. i find it amazing that this thing continues to be in a powerful downtrend despite the "green shoots" thesis being reflected in other commodities, to differing degrees. this beast has a mind of its own. at any rate i am looking to go long on weakness. feels like the next big move is up. cheers.
Nat Gas is a terrific buy here if you have a long time horizon (possibly years) and excess capital to buy more should be drop 30-40% more but I have started buying
yup it seems cheap. my horizon is a few hours to a few weeks at the moment! seems like we can test the lows from earlier this month and we are 10% away. we had a healthy 3% bounce this morning from the lows. tempted here, but i will watch some more. i am not a good trend fighter. looking to buy weakness.
I want to buy nat gas as well at this price level but the huge contango rules out futures and ETF as a viable vehicle for longer term (months or years) investment. Anyone has any idea to hold nat gas long term?
not entirely on topic, but I just read that UNG controls more than 25% of all nymex contracts. They're doing a 4 day roll to July, thanks goodness, or we'd have the USO roll bs happening in natty.
That's very on topic... it's difficult for people to swallow that were right on the crude oil call but were unaware of the contango BS associated with the USO