Natural gas Journal

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by InvestVision, Apr 8, 2009.

  1. Hello everybody,

    I am starting this thread to post all trading notes related to Natural gas futures .

    Please join to add your notes, this is only strictly for natural gas do NOT post other unrelated posts
  2. Henry Hub Natural Gas Futures "Contract " specifications
    Trading Unit
    10,000 million British thermal units (mmBtu).

    Price Quotation
    U.S. dollars and cents per mmBtu.
    Trading Hours (All times are New York time)

    Open outcry trading is conducted from 9:00 AM until 2:30 PM.

    Electronic trading is conducted from 6:00 PM until 5:15 PM via the CME Globex® trading platform, Sunday through Friday. There is a 45-minute break each day between 5:15PM (current trade date) and 6:00 PM (next trade date). Off-Exchange transactions can be submitted solely for clearing to the NYMEX ClearPort® clearing website as an exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) or exchange of futures for physicals (EFP) transaction until 5:15 PM, Monday through Friday, and the day preceding a holiday.

    Trading Months
    The current year plus the next twelve years through December 2020. A new calendar year will be added following the termination of trading in the December contract of the current year.

    Minimum Price Fluctuation
    $0.001 (0.1¢) per mmBtu ($10.00 per contract).

    Maximum Daily Price Fluctuation
    $3.00 per mmBtu ($30,000 per contract) for all months. If any contract is traded, bid, or offered at the limit for five minutes, trading is halted for five minutes. When trading resumes, the limit is expanded by $3.00 per mmBtu in either direction. If another halt were triggered, the market would continue to be expanded by $3.00 per mmBtu in either direction after each successive five-minute trading halt. There will be no maximum price fluctuation limits during any one trading session.

    Last Trading Day
    Trading terminates three business days prior to the first calendar day of the delivery month.

    NEW YORK -- Natural-gas futures edged higher Wednesday as traders took advantage of prices that were near a 6 1/2-year low.

    Natural gas for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading 3.7 cents, or 1.04%, higher at $3.599. The contract sank to its lowest since September 2002, falling to 3.531/MMBtu in earlier trading.

    Prices have been under pressure from robust natural gas production, swelling storage levels and the loss of demand resulting from the U.S. recession.

    Ed Kennedy, a senior vice president of energy with Hencorp Becstone Futures in Miami, said that natural gas is oversold and the low prices were creating opportunities for end users of natural gas.

    "There is no question, you have to lock in prices at these levels," Kennedy said.

    Natural gas prices have lost more than 70% of their value since hitting a July 2 intraday peak of $13.694/MMbtu.

    Analysts with the energy advisory firm Cameron Hanover wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that the amount of natural gas in storage and the loss of industrial demand has helped alleviate concerns over natural gas supply.

    "It could be 20 degrees colder than normal through the end of April, but it would not be enough to eat through the large amount of gas in underground storage facilities," the analysts wrote.

    Natural gas in storage for the week ended March 27 stood at 1.654 trillion cubic feet -- 32.1% higher than last year and 22.4% above the five-year average -- according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy.

    Market participants will look to Thursday's report by the EIA for indications that supply is falling in line with demand.

    "Investors await the release of the DOE's weekly natural gas report tomorrow to discover if the drop in rig counts and colder weather temporarily halted the early season increase in stockpiles," Addison Armstrong, an analyst with Tradition Energy, wrote in a note to clients.

    Meanwhile, the National Weather Service forecast for April 13 to April 17 calls for warmer-than-normal temperatures across parts of the Midwest and the Northeast. Cold temperatures in those regions can help boost demand for natural gas used to heat homes and businesses.
  4. usman88


    how much are you paying for the dowjones news?
  5. I am using it as part of esignal suite , they are charging $100 month for this news service
  6. I notice a divergence between graphs of various natural gas futures price contracts.
  7. CET


    I would guess that that is anticipating a recovery in the economy. It will be interesting to see how low it goes first.
  8. JPope


    Ive noticed that too, as 09-11 contracts have continued to fall, if you go out to 13 and 14, they seem to have held up quite well in the last 3-4 months. On the flip side, in that last head fake as front month (k09) jumped to 4.20, those deep deferred only jumped up .1-.12...
  9. Nat gas Futures End Higher Amid Bargain Buying

    HOUSTON -- Natural-gas futures ended higher Tuesday amid bargain buying despite forecasts for weaker demand this year.

    Natural gas for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled floor trade 6.1 cents, or 1.68%, higher, at $3.689 a million British thermal units, after a day of choppy trade. The contract fell as low as 3.585/MMBtu in earlier trading.

    Stephen Schork, editor of the energy advisory newsletter The Schork Report, said that natural gas prices remain under pressure from the economic downturn, dwindling demand and robust supplies of gas.

    "It is effectively a daily grind lower now, which doesn't mean we won't have some up days," Schork said, noting that low natural gas prices were providing buying opportunities for natural gas users.

    Natural gas prices have lost more than 70% of their value since reaching a summertime peak of 13.694/MMBtu. Prices plunged as demand for the fuel fell -- particularly among industrial users, which account for about a third of U.S. consumption.

    Major industrial gas consumers, including companies in the fertilizer, chemicals and aluminum industries, have curbed gas use as they cut spending.

    On Tuesday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised its earlier forecast and now sees industrial consumption falling by more than 7% in 2009, compared with a previous forecast of a 6% decline. The EIA projects that total natural gas consumption will decline by nearly 2% this year.

    Natural gas in storage levels have also swelled. Natural gas in storage stands at 1.674 trillion cubic feet -- 35.4% above last year and 22.7% greater than the five-year average.

    Meanwhile, natural gas producers have idled rigs and trimmed production to cope with falling prices. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas has fallen by about half from its September peak of 1,606 rigs, according to data from oilfield services company Baker Hughes (BHI).

    Market watchers say that they have not yet seen substantial production declines.

    "Until we see evidence that output has fallen enough to rebalance the market, we see risk that prices will continue to grind lower," Tim Evans, an analyst with Citi Futures Perspective, wrote in a note to clients.

    The National Weather Service is calling for below-normal temperatures to extend across the eastern half of the country from April 19 to April 23, but analysts contend that the colder weather won't be enough to spur additional heating demand or to offset lower industrial demand.

    Nymex May $3.689 +6.1c
    Nymex Jun $3.826 +6.1c
    Nymex Jul $3.996 +6.3c

    Henry Hub $3.55-$3.61 $3.43-$3.53
    Transco 65 $3.64-$3.70 $3.53-$3.63
    Tex East M3 $4.07-$4.23 $4.08-$4.20
    Transco Z6 $4.15-$4.40 $4.18-$4.30
    SoCal $3.05-$3.12 $2.95-$3.01
    El Paso Perm $2.88-$3.03 $2.84-$2.92
    El Paso SJ $2.81-$2.87 $2.83-$2.87
    Waha $2.96-$3.05 $2.88-$3.02
    Katy $3.37-$3.50 $3.27-$3.41
    #10     Apr 15, 2009