Hi: I'm looking for comments, observations regarding the short-term and/or long term - price behavior - seasonality - long-term trend of NG. January tendancies? I would like to learn to be a NG trader. thanks to all and happy new year. B
IMO one of the best things you can read on NG trading is the congressional report that came out after the Amaranth debacle. seriously, i learned more about that market than anything i had read before. if i can dig it up, ill post a link.
Thanks for that link, bt116 - a truly fascinating read. In addition to learning a lot more about the NG markets I was also impressed that US taxpayer dollars could produce something that's so straightforward and available.
extremely seasonal commodity. if you look at the price curve it truly looks like a roller coaster. higher in winter and summer months, with prices a bit lower in the spring and fall. from an option perspective, the winter and summer displays higher volatilities as well, with lower vol in spring fall, and the vol curve is downward sloping over all. 1 interesting thing on the options, is that they really don't display a typical "smile" like equities. seems that lower priced options don't have the higher implied vols then the at the monies do. this market is a beast though, so if you decide to tread, do it very lightly!
Thank you all for the comments and advice. I downloaded the Amaranth PDF and yes, it is readable and I am now working my way through it. I appreciate the contributions everyone made to my elementary threads over the past year and thank you for the input. Everyone have a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year! B
I was being facetious... haven't you seen that Seinfeld where George feigns a disability so that he can have someone make an audio version of a risk management book he has to read? Epic..
Was waiting for the right time to respond to your original question. It is time to sell some here. I have sold the following today for a longer term trade: Feb 7.40 Mar 7.405 Apr 7.435 May 7.50 Jun 7.59 Jul 7.685 I believe we have .80 to 1.00 of quick downside coming over the next week or 2.