There is an amazing story in T. Boon Pickens book about when he started his hedge fund. He started with something like 40 million and lost all but a few million. Then the next year, he plunged in Nat Gas and Ran that few million up to 250 million or so, then over the next few years took that up to several billion. Those are not exact numbers (recalling from memory), but hey if you want to plunge a few million in Nat Gas, Maybe you will be the next Pickens
As Nat Gas is cheap... and grinding lower... I'm sure a lot of ETers are watching it, wondering where to "take a shot". Who knows where the bottom is... I was just passing along Nenner's projection for those who wish to be bottom pickers.... and what I get for my effort is a few ETers jumping down my throat with "YOU'RE AN ASSHOLE... IF YOU THINK NAT GAS MIGHT GO TO $1.70... AND BE WILLING TO MAKE A PLAY THERE"...
The only thing I can do is be short NG. For months allready. No targets and no bottom picking for me. I wil get out when it looks like the downtrend is over and then I will have given back quite some money.
One way of playing this might be to buy short to medium term calls on the futures...say 0.25% of your account. (just a thought though, please don't put me on your ignore list!)
If you didn't mean me, then pardon my presumption... I generally put people on ignore when (1) they make unwarranted mean statements, or (2) they indicate that they are anti-America with their Leftist, Progressive, Communist, Democrat rants. Sometimes too... when they show they have little understanding but have a big ego and are aggressive about defending their wrong-ness. In those cases, they've indicated that they have nothing of value to add to a discussion... therefore don't want to be bothered with their BS. (Just guessing, but off hand I'd estimate my ignore list could be around 200.)
Right...well, now pls feel to discuss my idea of buying options rather than trying to predict the exact low.
millions of dollars huh? To gamble Watch the news on Fracking Fluid. EPA is up in arms in Penn. Marcels Shale. If they shut the play down there, the plays in Colorado, and in Texas will go on...but it could spook the market. Is the ban on the Fluid going to pass...who knows. The word on the street is OBAMA is pushing hard....but The industry has enough money to fight the ban. Stay tuned. UNG is shit. Buy the futures, deal with rollover or buy options.
I wasn't trying to "predict the exact low"... just passing Nenner's words along. As for your idea of buying options.... "make a good guess", just as in any other play.
Oh, you know how ETers like to think in terms of "gamble".. Just throwing that word out there gets their little ginies all atingle...