Natty

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by PAPA ROACH, Oct 29, 2008.

  1. i think you are spot on pwr.
     
    #131     Dec 4, 2008
  2. #132     Dec 8, 2008
  3. I want you guys to be right -- got long h/j today

    I like to buy NG when it looks totally horrible...
     
    #133     Dec 8, 2008
  4. pwrtrdr

    pwrtrdr

    Just for record ( not telling anyone what to do or trade) I wouldnt buy H/J-

    I wait to -.10 or so and see if a bounce or not. I think no bounce, we can see -.25 easy
     
    #134     Dec 9, 2008
  5. i got some bot at -.65, this is just a day trade certainly not building a position around this. Long f/g too. Same circumstances as above. Did anybody watch the f/h CL spread what the hell happened there??? Went the opposite way of the 4 dollar rally, from -3/50 to 5.00. what a deal did anybody catch that or get caught in it??
     
    #135     Dec 9, 2008
  6. pwrtrdr

    pwrtrdr

    I did not see that. My experience is that thes "spreads" are somthing funds play for a while, then once the reality or physical sesnse comes back to market they go very much the other way.
    Look, Nat Gas is going to really tank. We have chemical companies shutting plants, LNG that was marked for Asia and Europe coming here any chance it gets, slow electrical demand etc. etc ( and then comes perception on top of all that!)
     
    #136     Dec 9, 2008
  7. bt116

    bt116

    I thought LNG only comes here when price gets rediculously high? Why would LNG be on the way from Asia with price in the $5s?
     
    #137     Dec 9, 2008
  8. Same here -- short-term trade got in around the same level. looking for a bounce to dump it.

    Is there a floor level for the h/j? i.e., storage/carrying cost etc that will put in a floor. I looked at the data since 2001 (thx for the link posted earlier), and the lowest h/j went was -0.20 (compared to now -0.065).
     
    #138     Dec 9, 2008
  9. pwrtrdr

    pwrtrdr

    Agree with 5 handle, but it has to go somewhere, we have storage they dont really.
     
    #139     Dec 9, 2008
  10. pwrtrdr

    pwrtrdr

    These are not historic times- its all new- if its liquid it gets sold- plenty of gas demand slow.

    As far as spread- same thing, cant compare to past- all new. Just like on upside, look at charts it ges waaayyy over done because large funds plowing in or in or out of a rather small liquid market
     
    #140     Dec 9, 2008