Natty Spike

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Gyrene Dertra, Oct 31, 2007.

  1. Did anyone happen to see at 10:40 when natty traded from a low of 8.134 to a high of 8.475 in a one minute time frame. There were only 692 lots traded in that minute, and then on the way back down there were a few thousand traded as it got back to 8.15 within 3 or 4 minutes of the spike. The floor brokers I spoke to were all saying that the reason was that ICE's system went down and the arb players who trade ICE to Globex had to cover when that happened, but I spoke with the ICE help desk and that was only the IPE oil products that went down, and not the NYBOT market or OTC markets where natty and power trade. Any insights would be welcome, but it seemed to be a rather drastic move for that time frame and on that little of volume.
  2. The official announcement that came over webice stated that Ice Brent, WTI, and Gas Oil markets were affected. Only thing I bothered to glance at was WTI, and lo and behold, it was dead. OTC power was not affected.
  3. XBOT


    ICE trading for the oil products is the only thing that went "down" but the entire ICE platform was completely jammed up during that time period. The platform froze for many users and I believe that was the reason for the move in globex NG
  4. The spike happened in 2 seconds. 9:40:52 Traded $8.165 all the way up to $8.407 (that's right, a 2.96% move in a single second). 9:40:53 early in the second made the high of $8.475.

    The long fund that is bidding heavily is who I believe to be responsible for the move. If there was foul play, the CFTC will catch it in their market surveillance.

    BTW, it is very apparent that a single large fund entity is an aggressive buyer on ICE, attempting to create a larger short-covering rally at some point. Fighting some very bearish underlying fundamentals though.
  5. Do you see Natty going up or down from now on till 4 weeks later?
  6. it's a coin toss here for a position trade. fundamentals suck, but huge fund is pushing it up. we will get some cold weather shots starting next week that may get some excitement but the winter forecast is still a bearish one.

    I am avoiding a position right now and just scalping with the momentum. If I had to put a position on I would sell on over-valuation, but would likely get stopped out by the fund that is gunning it.
  7. Comm, it's good to see your back. I thought you got killed. I haven't been trading NG lately.
  8. Thanks Comanche
  9. I have traded natty for 12 years now, I get bored of it often so I have been screwing around in the equity threads on ET.
  10. Thats why you have to trade oil. You wouldn't get bored doing that.

    NG is trading ugly for me, or at least more often then not for me to sit and watch it all day.
    #10     Nov 2, 2007