Polls weren't right about the margin but they were right about the winner Even state polls were 5 out of 6 on who would win. Approval rating polls which are 100% on predicting re-election was right for 4 years straight with Trump never reaching the 50 level needed for re election
If you claim that someone is going to win by 10% and your poll has a margin of error of 4%..... and the candidate wins by 1% --- it still means that your poll sucks. In fact it is the very definition of statistical failure.
If you claim that someone is going to win and they win that poll is very good. 7 out of 8 correct between national,state and approval polls. national polls had Biden ahead of Trump for 2 years with Trump never ahead of Biden in aggregate polling and approval rating poll which are 100% in predicting re election had Trump below 50 for 4 straight years.Im more than satisfied with those results.
This isn't sports betting,I don't need to beat the spread.All I want to know from political polls is who is going to win .In this election national and approval polls were perfect and state polls were nearly perfect in predicting the winner.
Every new Administrations does this if they are from a different party. The top of agency executives serve at the pleasure of the President. If you want to have an effective administration, you have people who are onboard with your policies. Biden is about to change people at the top too. One of Trump's biggest obstacles was that he did not get enough of his people in charge. Instead he had the establishment working to block his policies everywhere. Trump should have let Christie be in charge of the transition. Instead Trump got rolled by the establishment types he had. Trump was the farthest thing from a dictator. He was unable to get the vast majority of the policies he ran on, accomplished. This Trump as dictator has virtually no facts supporting it. CNN bullshit is what it was. Trump even had infighting at the White House itself. As an outsider... he paid the price for not having a plan, a team and connections.
It would seem the polls are going to be, once again, remarkably correct in aggregate within their margin of error once all the votes are in and counted. We had a very delayed final result this year because of the extraordinarily large number of mail-in ballots, and in some states the Republican controlled legislatures blocked an early start to counting before Nov. 3. The obvious difficulty that polling will encounter is in predicting the Electoral College Outcome whenever there are states with large numbers of E.C. votes that are polling at a statistical tie. That's because of winner take all rules. That situation could create a large margin of error in the aggregate prediction of E.C. results by pollsters. Maybe that's why they shy away from trying to predict the E.C. results. But they have been pretty good at getting the popular vote right. Now the really hard thing to predict is when will "The Donald" start backing his bags.
Ok, let me ask you these: Do you believe Trump is a competent businessman? Do you believe Trump is a competent politician?
Biden is going to have a very hard time. In exist polls - 78% of the people who voted for Biden said they did so because they did not like Trump. Only 22% said they voted for Biden because they liked his "policies". Very, very, little support. Even from his own party. Amazingly the Senate will stay Republican. The Senate will stick it to Biden every chance they get. They might not even approve his Cabinet.
Would you trade a system that was correct in the direction 7 out of 8 times; but always wrong as to the extent of the movement?