National Polls - Inside the margin...

Math:

This is an exercise to see what Election Day turnout would have to look like for Trump win popular vote.

100,000,000* already voted

60% Biden 60,000,000
38% Trump 38,000,000

If ~65,000,000 vote in person

29% Biden 18,850,000
66% Trump 42,900,000

That will give Trump the popular vote (which I know he doesn’t need).

Total
Biden 78,850,000
Trump 80,900,000

For reference 2016 total voters turnout was around 139,000,000 or 55.5%

To get to 165,000,000 voter turnout would have to be around 64%.

*

 

Thanks for the math.

Logic:

Your math assumes the NBC poll is remotely accurate.

 

I took you guys off of ignore for the day. Yes, all of it is approximate but in line with most other approximations.

 

Very magnanimous of you.

 

One thing that his math also assumes is that Republican voters answered honestly.

 

That's in line with one of the reasons the NBC numbers might be inaccurate.

 

I know shy Biden voters but not one shy Trump voter.

 

AH HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

You are on drugs.

There is no other reason why a person would say that.

 

I know 2 Republicans who quietly voted for Biden. I don’t know of anyone who is hiding their Trump support.