Many, Many people with hard, implacable, inflexible views are subject to tremendous confirmation bias. They find the implausible perfectly believable if it supports their viewpoint. An example is the fallacy of widespread voting fraud committed by the Democrats. There's no proof at all, but the hard right loves the idea and so they accept it, and explicitly grant legislatures permission to create voting hurdles for their political enemies. The flip side to this is to ignore facts. Case in point is Jem's complete misreading of Nate Silver's 2010 predictions, which were on the whole and very accurate, and based on the data provided by others. Silver is a statistician and a pro. He predicted the mid-term shift of House control to republicans and he was correct. Again, he compiles polls. It is isn't rocket science. But for Jem et al, as Silver is not predicting a Romney win, he must be suspect. There will be other Republican Presidents elected in future years, and I give Silver a 97% chance of correctly predicting those races too.
Your repeated argument is boring. How about averaging real votes? Looks like Nate was right... What is with you Reps that you only like the weather man when he predicts sunshine??? Get use to reality.....
Noooo Put down the crack pipe. Guessing an outcome doesn't validate the probability assigned to it. :