Boy I wouldn't touch cl:ng with a ten foot pole with 10 k. You could be much much better doing a mini crude against 2 mini ng. Not advising you to trade it, but if you decide you want to I'd stay the hell out of the big contracts with anything less than 100 g. Good luck, I'm more of an ag guy than most around the energy forums, but I will always try and help answer any questions. PM with any.
I just re-read your post I apologize I got it wrong. I missed the q/z spread by a few ticks and never chased about two weeks ago, woulda coulda shoulda. Margin on an ng spread is around a grand, those deffered spreads are super thin, I'd stay away with that little cash if it were me. I have personally noticed that messing around with deffered spreads on draw or injection days (thurs) can really become unpleasant as they can explode in your face. Read around these forums, there are some very smart people with good ideas.
I see that now, a $1,000 expanse of bone-dry bid-and-offerlessness on either side of the last. No wonder Amaranth couldn't get out of their trade... this ain't eurodollars... Too bad; I like the trade. Q/U or U/V are tight but I don't understand them... so much to learn. About crude:nat gas, no, I have zero faith in any tradable correlation. My instinct says to fade people who buy natural b/c crude's higher. Btw maybe some of you have seen this but EDHEC -- the French trading-oriented B-school -- put out a readable and I believe high quality analysis of the Amaranth blow-up which tries to reverse-engineer their trades (in English). <a href=âhttp://www.edhec-risk.com/multistyl...hments/EDHEC_Comments_on_Amaranth_Case.pdfâ>Here's the link</a> as a small gesture of thanks to you guys.
Sorry, I mangled that link. Here it is: http://www.edhec-risk.com/multistyl...tachments/EDHEC_Comments_on_Amaranth_Case.pdf
So if our screens are right the +N/-Q is .184 bid at .185, with a little more size on the ask. Looks like it went down to .164 earlier today. Do you still have this trade on?
I do. Actually working a GTC to add more at .225, doubt we get there again, but I will carry this trade into physi if I must.
So how does that work? You have to take delivery of your +N at Henry, then schedule it to a storage or park& lend, and then schedule it back to HH to settle your -Q? In that case your profit becomes .185 (or whatever you entered at) minus transportation and storage charges. Also you have to float the full cash for that month, right? sorry if these are naive questions...
I find this thread very interesting and thanks to all the contributors.. How tradeable are the Globex NG spreads after US RTH? I'm looking to learn (having my appetite whetted here), but I'm committed to other endeavors during the US day. Is ICE a better way to go? My thoughts are if the RTH is at all doable opening an account at Velocity/Advantage on TT/CQG. Be gentle - newbie to futures (but not to trading). Regards
About UNG and the roll: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/06/18/57926/cramer-doesnt-get-the-ung/ How do you find out when UNG will roll? Or USO and the others, for that matter? -Q/+Z: Almost jumped in (papertraded instead since I'm a coward) at -215 as liquidity's not awful during the day -- jumpy, expressive tape. Ended its liquid period at about -260. Tomorrow's another day and the chart looks confirmed if anything. Unfortunately on CNBC I heard people realize that gas can go lower... To AmbushHillbilly: these other guys know way better than I do but seems the consecutive month spreads at the front of the curve are well-populated at night on Globex. Like q/u.