I understood him to be long the spread and didn't mean to imply otherwise. What part of my comment gave you the impression that I thought he was short?
KAAABOOOMM spreads all came in , game over. physical market is not dominating, nobody has idea just how short these funds are vs. oil. Gartmen and the rest kept getting margin calls on NG/ CL spread, maybe now it will come in its all ranodom, until you learn how to operate in randomness, makes no sense to trade any market. point being you wait to volitility picks up in any one direction then you trade, heps if you know the market you are trading too, just dont get caught thinking you know which direction is correct, its random
I forgot to post on Friday, I added to my +N/-Q position, put it on at .225. Am working another piece at .225 today, not sure if I will get that now, may have to go in at .20ish. Still like this trade to .10 at some point.
I hate trading physical gas, but if I have to, I will take this into physical. I will hopefully get a chance to ring the register before settle though.
Ithink you will find guys like Perkins in Texas and the like are very short, and it will go higher than you think before physical reality takes hold- maybe early next week ? Until then risk on upside is big in my opinion These gas guys are making comments on CNBC ! Imagine saying gas has a long way to go down- he is just looking to get it tucked to him, or he is simply long and making that up- who knows, but I would be they are short making money of UNG like the rest have been for several months..... one month it will be KABOOM, maybe this one it it !
There is a reason Centaurus is the king of gas. I don't think they get run over on a squeeze as I believe they have length on the curve as a hedge. Everyone knows when we deal with the storage crisis, it will become a buy the dip market. My bet is Cent is long cal 10's or someting along those lines. Also, the time to play for pay is not until the last couplke of days into expiry, that is when it counts as your ICE position goes to cash settle.
Agree, however I think its time for a blowup. One way or another It could be that CL/spread that will bend the curve like beckem'
Nat gas newbie here. The chart calls me --> Short AUG Long DEC. -Q/+Z. My fears: -The CL/NG spread pulling up NGQ9 (though as someone noted if you can convert from a distillate to nat gas you've probably already done it). -El Nino effect lessening chance of hurricanes and leading to a mild winter (if I understand it right) -- although what affect would a tropical depression forecast have on the various months? Guess I'd want forecast of hurricanes to come, but not imminently... -Unknown unknowns. Also, if rigs (or whatever you call them in Natural) are being shut of because of they're not profitable here, when would that hit in the form of lower supplies? Six months out? How does this trade work if equity markets take a hit here? Dollar should have a subdued effect on natural gas, you'd think, since it's mainly a domestic brew, right? Anyway, in the end I'll make my own decision, and maybe I'm asking too many questions, but was interested to know if the trade has some key elements to it that I'm clueless about, being new to natural gas... Thanks very much. p.s. Is a 10K account too small for one of these monsters?