Oh, I agree completely. Regardless of the horrible macro-fundamental picture for us, I think we are about to shake up complacent positions on a nice rally, we have all the ingredients in place, let's see how this comes in Monday. I will likely add more +F/-J tomorrow or Friday. Have a good weekend.
http://www.ferc.gov/market-oversight/mkt-gas/trading/ngas-tr-phy-bs-map.pdf This link provides the more obvious basis play opportunities for those who can schedule physical gas. Certain winter "pinch points" can rock your world: Transco Z6 NY versus TETCO M3 is a real 'widow-maker'. Energy is a spread trader's paradise. There is a whole class of energy traders who specialize in physical delivery plays: Financial Transmission Rights (FTR) in electricity is another really good one.
Trading Z6/M3 whether spread or outright truly is for the titanium-balled only. That market isn't even smooth, a single day gap could wipe some out, although with Canaport and REX I doubt the swings will be what they were in the past.
Amen brother. Power can be the other crotch-rocket. In August 2007, I saw the inc/dec market in PJM-West go from $55 to $1,225 per MW-hr. over the span of about three hours. In July of 2008 my broker told me of a famous German Bank losing $15M in one day playing the ERCOT hourly market (East Texas wind power vs. natural gas peakers on a very hot summer day).
Put on another tranche of +F/-J at -.19. REALLY like this play as prompt cash is starting to tighten on balmo swaps and coming cold.
And, if you go the way of tower research you don't even have to worry about if your position goes against you
closed out my entire +F/-J position at -.15, made a whopping penny!! I want to reassess next week and possibly layer in again at better, just didn't like the model flip flop of the cold.