nat gas trading - a lost cause?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by scriabinop23, Jul 18, 2006.

  1. i've been doing pretty well generally lately with most of my trading - I have been developing some trading rules for myself, and am having success.

    But I can't seem to stay away from the natural gas futures - and every time I touch them, I get burned. Today, for example, I went long on the first opportunity, of retracement, when august qg was up +0.09 then back to +0.02. Well, luck would have it, my timing was horrible. That was the start of a decline all the way to -.25 or so.

    And upon this blunder, I made all the mistakes again that I've made in the past - averaging in when down more than I know is 'safe' (I have a position size that I determine as safe), exiting and re-entering like a schlock.

    My ego takes hold and I become a revenge trader. I'm dissapointed every time this happens, because I start breaking my own rules and lose my discipline.

    I've seen a high correlation with oil prices the last few days, and I think we're finally at a price level, considering heat waves and record power plant consumption, that will set some price resistance around the level we are at.

    Any opinions ? It seems my trades with oil are much more successful ... My success rate is much higher.
  2. QG is too illiquid I think. If want to play i the energy market, play the QM. I watched QG for a while and the moves were to sporadic for my taste. Stay away and play the QM.
  3. Another story to further explain my awe over lack of any success with this contract: Last week, I was following the EIA reports concerning inventories. Despite my gut saying to buy after the reports said inventories were down, I watched the price fall on this thing, so after it appeared there was some bottom resistence at a certain point, I thought I'd sell short and follow what everyone was doing. After all, the previous week's EIA report was more neutral, stimulated a selloff, and the thing never reversed its course. So I ignored my gut since my gut was wrong the previous week.

    Hahah... minutes after, this thing starts reversing up (and for the rest of the day when big players came in and bid it up .20 or .30 from where it was at). Thankfully I exited early and took my loss and said to myself I would stay away.. Today, wasn't so controlled. It was a mess.

    Perhaps this belongs in the psychology forum.

    Maybe qg is no day trader's contract.. Only swing or longer.
  4. I've been waiting to leg into natty, might as well start now.
  5. buy a few hundred contracts and drive the price of this thing up, ok. :)