so are you saying the longs panicked and bought up more high inventory natgas on no immediate weather change when they saw oil inventories down below expectations? That report moved nat gas almost twice as much as oil. Am I the only bear on this board?
Why do you think it's a "panic" of any sort? Why isn't just an up day in natty. This is not a move of unusual size in natty.
its will start to get very bearish in the cash startingthe second week of nov into the end of the month. industrial demand drops sig. around thanksgiving and if there isnt encompassing cold you'll start to get very whippy moves.
"its will start to get very bearish in the cash startingthe second week of nov into the end of the month." That won't necessarily be bearish for futures, though.
Its just an inferrence from open interest, proximity to tommorow's EIA report and distance from expiration. By the way: look on nymex web site - open interest just declined more than 10k contracts. Definitely short covering.
I'm not saying anything about where the market will go, but in my very humble opinion, you make a lot of unwarranted assumptions in your analysis. So what if open interest decreased? You have no idea who is closing them out or why.
use common sense. If price is up and buying pressure is high, and open interest closes dramatically, then likely its short covering.