it is a big driver in crude and crude makes distillate, distallate compete with NG domestic If dollar wasnt weak maybe crude would be 40 bucks if crude 40 bucks nat gas could be 2.50
Yo Papa, I am interested in hearing your comments on NG going forward. Yes, I know the weather is a major variable as is any production adjustments producers may make. If you are seeing anything that may be beneficial to the rest of lest, please let us know. TIA.
That little bastard El Nino strengthened a bit this week and is now in the moderate category, which may throw a wrench in the cold winter outlook. If the little bastard keeps gaining strength, this market could go low enough to really kill some producers as any semblence of a normal to warmer winter will create a carryout in excess of 2 TCF, which is fucking ugly as sin in this environment. We need the cold winter or "there will be blood". I have seen an uptick on the physical production side, right on time with the contango runup in price, bringing alot of witheld production and backlogged well completions to market now and in the coming weeks, it is coming whether we need it or not. I figure there is still roughly 18 months of time left in the shale lease boom that started about 18 months ago (3 yr typical leases), that will keep supply up and hinder the upside in this market barring any unforseen major event. I want so bad to be a bull, but if one were plugging all this in and calcing odds, you'd really have to be a bear.
yikes ... can a long work out here in macro land ? www.mpaconline.org/calendar/images/stories/stomp.jpg
seeing a large jump from yesterday to today in the canadian imports, also seeing a big jump in LNG (1 day). The LNG doesn't concern me as that is volatile, but the canadian jump does. We do not need anymore supply at the moment, the 6-10 and 11-15 day outlooks are VERY bearish looking, will lead to further builds in storage when we should be moving towards withdrawals.
MOTHER Fucker!! The forecast for through the 11-15 day is warm as can be, and to top it off, El Nino is strengthening further, there are now readings of > +2 degrees C in wide areas of the Pacific. This puts it in the strong category and is very conducive towards a warm winter. If we don't get cold REAL SOON, natty will be a bloodbath! Aubrey McClendon commented in their conf call a few days ago that CHK had lifted all their CAL 10 and forward hedges so his price would not be capped out anymore. If this market does what I see now, CHK will be in dire circumstances without forward sales on. He better quickly rethink his strategy.
If anyone is aware or becomes aware of any production shut-ins in the Gulf over Hurricane Ida please post the info. It does not appear that it would be for more than a few days, but I guess it could be about a week if they evacuate rigs. TIA.