Hugh was extremely risk averse through 2009 and continues to be. He is very much long treasuries last I've heard. He was also long derivatives that bet that the rates will stay under 2% in the 2s and 5s I believe. This was as of late Nov. 09 The payoff on that bet is very high supposedly given that everyone expected rates to end up over 2%. Caveat- I don't recall if the later info was applicable to UK bonds or US..... You can confirm by reading the article on scribd search: hugh hendry eclectica
Treasury shorts will be paid eventually, but it seems to me too soon to be shorting them. We have a stock market showing signs of weakness and it is inconceivable that the Fed would raise rates before a congressional election-- short of a calamity that is.. We should be looking at years of a consolidating market before the next bull. There are other factors of course. Eventually the Fed will raise, but when? (I'm not talking about seasonal patterns here that might be taken advantage of. Bonds are often down Feb-May.)
That's amusing, should people like Jim Cramer and Ben Bernanke give trading advice then purely because they have been in the field several years?
If shorting the US TY is a "no brainer" then what was shorting JGBs the last two decades.. risk free money in the bank? Or a painful lesson? Let's see: JGBs, backadjusted futures, log chart: TY US Bonds, backadjusted futures, log chart: