Why do you have to gamble?...work with the data, make reasonable assumptions and then trade or invest according to your ability. Me, I simply day trade Es and Fx and "hovver" over our Roths ,trading where necessary.
i don't think so. i think he has pretty good idea what he is doing and he is likely not happy with all those foreseen consequences. the question is: does he have a choice nowadays? in my opinion he is doing hell of a good job - i would like to see anybody else in his shoes - especially the maestro...
he is doing what must be done, i.e. liquefying the system with cash to offset velocity declines (credit crunch). his lowering rates across the curve is necessary to "bail out" house equity declines. in addition the steep curve recapitalizes banks (as somebody already mentioned above). you may not like it but it must be done - nobody denies today that everything is completely fucked up. come with an alternative and i am sure you will get an invitation to a fed meeting....
forget it. im done with thread. If you think the government can save all the dead bodies outthere including the banks then this will be a buying opportunity of a lifetime, but if you are wrong the decline is going to scare the living shit out of you
I agree with you. Liz is ramping up in radio now and it is fun for her and the audience. I believe, as does Liz, that the call in Q's are very important after introducing the nub of the opportunity or problem. We do get together with one of the local anchors here occassionally and the wives are associated in the usual sevice projects ways. Our anchor made three trips to the war repair places and he is always in touch with us on the post traumaic stuff our foundation and its officers are in the field dealing with. The black swans are going to be numerous and act as nodes for breaking the glass of the economy. Constructive information placed in the public eye is much more powerful than structural power and below that money. THe heirarchy of money, power and information has always been the key. The shift back to crunching (non illusional types) from the current idealism orientation of the powerful is difficult. Transparency does come from valued information. The greed of the sales organizations of the financial industry will continue to make strong efforts to preserve the opaqueness of the economic process. Those who have the questions have to get the answers in a variety of ways. During the Viet Nam war the cost of the war was determined by exhaustivly interviewing and tabulating the contractors since those running the war were closed mouthed. Today the up coming "black swan" list is long and making public the prescriptive information for prevention is not in any of the participant's interests (because of the consequences). Ostriches are condoning postponing black swans which are currently building in their destructive potential. At EOP we had a weekly "orchestrating" routine. It worked well as an information level play. The time frequency was so slow compared to today. I did the NY and Washington thing many many years ago and there was always follow on in the way you suggest. The women then flocked to the Cos Club in NYC. (Brokaws, for example). I sometimes wish the New Yorker had the same quality staff that it did years back. Henry Cooper did the military and space beat and others really got into things deeply. Today Denby is dead wood and the financial stories by Janet Masilin poop out. Denby's latest book is a personal requiem. None of these guys can even get into the ball park to deal with your whats missing list. This is the time of the year when I lay out the legs of the upcoming year. Looking back to last December when 2008 was all evident, how neat it would have been to lay stuff out in detail a quarter of a year in advance. 90 days is a long time financially. Personally, I think the best play would be to add 30 minutes of finance and economics to the comedy channel. Jon and Steve and someone who is quick and witty. Calling it the Daily Black Swan Report would really work. Pre Black Swan is extremely hilarious; these swans could have elephants in the room activities going on that no one (in power or money) apparently notices. Black Swan moments ar deeply poignant. After Math would be a terrific Pooched (poached) Black Swan follow on. The helicopter is flying weekly; why not have a weather map and preflight scene pre black swan. Regrettably, my system (body) doesn't work well anymore. I fall over sideways after just talking for a while. Making money is a deeply funny dream like experience. You know you will have a dream every evening. I can't imagine a TV world where the power of having a neutral bias could happen. You KNOW EVERY day EVERYWHERE you play you are going to rack up piles of money. Whoopee. Having a30 minute comedy show that said what was coming up tomorrow for making money and doing it in the context of the "plays of the day" would just destroy those people like the talking heads and Cramer types. I love seeing that yelllow band on CNN. The darn thing is horizontal!!!!!. I declined CNBC after four scheduling mishaps.....LOL.... It all is so fucking funny...... the way it happens now. The juxtaposition of making all this money these days with the unintented comedy of these ignorant people and their writers. I had a big laugh here yesterday...so I may seem a little out of it today. Maybe ET ought to run a Black Swan forum so we could all have our plays set up ahead of the news and Congress and NYC and Washington. Is it fair to spoil the year by putting up a chart in advance and name all the swans, etc.??? It was fun in 2008.
Small note: it won't matter if you were right or wrong. The scary part you will see, like it of not. There will definitely be potty breaks econometrically speaking.