carnage is just starting http://video.google.com/videoplay?d...i=2Bg9SYyRKJycrAKOvpzsCg&q=nassim+taleb&emb=1
Why? Its not like Taleb and Roubini haven't been all over TV and print for months saying the same things.
right, its not like the credit market is trading as if 1930's is coming. Its not like the few folks who got it right are saying there is more blood down the road, while 99% of the world is using mean reversion/VAR like mentality to say 'things will go back to normal' while they have STARING ON THEIR FACES the facts that this time IS different
more hugh hendry as well ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azd2mhbFQOjs hit the watch button and hopefully it will work. bloomberg's videos are pretty hit or miss. some great stuff in the middle about how these "its a great buying opportunity" guys are "bad for your financial health". He says we should "fire them", but then stops himself and says, "you know something, they're already dead." Great stuff.
Markets can be all terribly wrong. The credit markets were wrong before this blowup, and they are likely wrong now. This video makes one good point: markets are great at being wrong. Furthermore, Taleb is contradicting himself by saying with certainty what is going to happen. Lets look how markets were wrong: 1) Buying subprime for 100c on the dollar. 2) Buying oil at 147 (inflation and supply fear), then 6 months later selling at 42. 3) Shipping rates. Why was everyone so wrong signing drybulk ship leases 1 year ago at 230k/day that now are practically free in comparison? 4) Credit markets are priced to MORE defaults than the great depression right now (yes, this is true). Is this true? I don't buy that since credit guys are more sophisticated because they are 'professionals', that pricing that results is necessarily the reflection of the truth vs the stock market. Giant mispricings in their markets led to this mess. My chips are on the reflation bet through increased money supply to offset this credit-induced deflation. Those who still have credit and assets will be rewarded, since a return of economic activity spurred by int. rate policy and fiscal stimulus multiplied * increased money supply = elevated GDP as well as obviously higher prices.