nassim nicholas taleb to me Hide options 2/25/05 From: nassim nicholas taleb <xxx@fooledbyrandomness.com> Mailed-By: tmo.blackberry.net Reply-To: xxx@fooledbyrandomness.com To: "xxxxx@xxxxx.com" <xxxxx@xxxxx.com> Date: xxx xx, 2005 xx:xx AM Subject: Di italia Reply | Reply to all | Forward | Print | Add sender to Contacts list | Delete this message | Report phishing | Show original | Message text garbled? Hi there I am in italy enjoying the good life and wondering about idiots like you who do not have the guts and the balls to reveal their identity. Best, NNT Sent wirelessly. Unsolicited email I received while he was apparently traveling in Europe. Must have left his meds at home.
i saw that movie last night. great movie! has my highest reccomendation, totally enjoyable. best allen movie by far. does the playing the opposite of historic records hold any water? buying the worst performing funds of the year rather than the top performers?? surfer
Apparently my wording isn't clear. The email was unsolicited. Therefore, NNT's email wasn't a response. I believe it may have been a case of mistaken identity.
Surf, No, I don't think you want to fade these funds. I think the one advantage you have to buying a fund that appears on paper to have really bad numbers is that one, you know to expect large drawdowns, therefore there is no surprise factor. Two, the fund manager is also aware of the risk and hits his fund has taken, and if he is still around and his fund is still active, then he cleary has the temperament to withstand the losses. This is one of the areas of finance that does not get talked about and I have mentioned it a few times on ET when people ask me why I want to see traders trade in real time vs just looking at their sheets as a way to evaluate them. See, when traders are making money, all is well and they are executing their plan whatever the plan and strategy is. What you don't know, is how will a trader handle himself when he is under heat. When he is sitting on large losses, when things are starting to happen that he never dreamed of happening. Now, how does he handle that, what decisions does he make. Does he double up in anger, does he keep averaging down, does he throw all his risk parameters out the window in panic to quickly try to make his money back? See, this is the kind of stuff that doesn't show up on the sheets or the performance reports. This is the kind of stuff investors only find out about AFTER the fact. sharpe Ratios will reveal nothing about this. Neither will max drawdown figures. So the advantage I see of going with a fund that has a large drawdown is again, the fact that the manager was able to recover from the heat he had to take. A fund manager that has not had a large drawdown (yet), has not revealed how he will act under those same circumstances. Another words, it will be a surprise!
You can make your own luck in trading if you have a true cutting edge technique and a super disciplined mentality. That's what trading is all about. There are no shortcuts to this business. Hard work and passion for trading go hand in hand. Sure, once in a while, you'll get a bad hand "black swan". If you're experienced enough though, you'll get out of it unharmed.
I take youre point re: luck and I'm a firm believer in the very large role it plays in life. However, I cannot agree with your endorsement of the film Match Point LOL. It was bad luck for me to be dragged to see it and I will never be able to get those 2 hours of my life back
Well, people seem to either really like it or really hate it. I happen to like Woody Allen films and I also happen to like films that draw on Brittish humor. I also happen to really like Scarlett Johansson.