Nassim Taleb makes the rounds again

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Maverick74, Feb 4, 2006.

  1. Banjo

    Banjo

    I'm long March 06 Testosterone calls. Various strikes, God only knows where they'll end up.
     
    #51     Feb 5, 2006
  2. Choad

    Choad

    #52     Feb 5, 2006
  3. FredBloggs

    FredBloggs Guest

    i was CHASING SOME TAIL last night. she wasnt that fat though.

    she bought my CALL of 'her place'. i woz OUT OF THE MONEY though, so got embarrased when i couldnt pay the taxi driver. this PUT me right in it. i thought she would STRIKE me, but she was a real BUTTERFLY and was IN THE MONEY. pheeew. i thought she or the taxi driver would STRANGLE me!!

    she had a sister - so we had a ONE BY TWO and......i wont mention the big GREEK.....shit is it really worth carrying on?? do you really want to know how big her DELTAS were? or how her VEGA smelt?


    naaaa......


    :D
     
    #53     Feb 5, 2006
  4. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Hey, can we get back to the original discussion? I really don't care if Taleb had a 7 figure salary last year, but I would like to know the performance of his fund(s) in the last 3 years.

    Any info on that?
     
    #54     Feb 5, 2006

  5. based on my memory, kurotosis ( taleb's fund ) performance has been weak over the last 3 years. last i heard he refunded capital to his investors and went on sabatical. i am not hip to the latest info. perhaps he is doing great now, i certainly hope so. I have much respect for taleb, he has a genius maverick mind which is rare in this field.

    i can't seem to locate the actual performance figures, but will link once i do.


    surf
     
    #55     Feb 5, 2006
  6. Here's a really good New Yorker article about Taleb. It goes into his meeting with Niederhoffer and the impact that meeting had upon him as well as the diagnosis of his throat cancer. Anybody REALLY interested in furthering his understanding of Taleb should really read it, a good synopsis of the underlying philosophy of black swans. If you are a trophy hunter you can easily relate to Taleb. Patience and persistence is necessary, for the prize is out there lurking, one just has to sit tight in the right place long enough for it to be realized. A good yin yang perspective of investment philosophy, Niederhoffer/Taleb. The article is from 2002 and goes into Neiderhoffer's blow up. Worth the read in my opinion

    Check it out:


    http://traders2traders.com/papers/NewYorkerTaleb&Neiderhoffer.pdf
     
    #56     Feb 5, 2006
  7. Couldn't agree more Algo.
     
    #57     Feb 5, 2006
  8. Well, here's my full recent debate of the flaws that exist in C2's algorithm. Maybe that will answer your question.

    http://www.collective2.com/cgi-perl...=&session=97398817326362396003504766397701157
     
    #58     Feb 5, 2006
  9. he contributes to willmot.com

    they are offering Taleb course
     
    #59     Feb 5, 2006
  10. Maverick74

    Maverick74

    For those of you that read the Trader Monthly article or the one in Active Trader, the articles weren't so much about him, but rather about the fallacy of historical performance as it relates to determining the risk of an individual trader or fund. I find this area of finance fascinating, especially in light of the 12,000 or so hedge funds out there.

    I've always laughed at the Sharpe Ratio as a way of measuring risk for a fund. Or the min and max drawdowns that funds like to advertise. They tell you nothing about a fund. Well, that's not entirely true. Bad numbers certainly reveal many red flags, but the problem is, good numbers don't necessarily mean the fund is any better.

    Taleb spends a lot of time explaining the difference between evaluating how risky a fund has been in the past vs how risky it could be going forward. As an options trader myself, I have a very intimate understanding and respect for risk. And since I now run an office and have to look at new traders and their risk profiles, it's fascinating to see how dangerous they are, yet how well they hide it. I can see through the BS pretty fast. What's even more amazing is they don't even realize they are BSing me. They really truly do not see their own risk and they are completely ignorant of it. I see a lot of that on ET.

    This is one of the reasons I found Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness" book so interesting. It forces us to look beyond our own reflection in the mirror and instead think about what our reflection could look like in a different time and under different circumstances. I think many of us are scared to really admit, that luck plays a much larger factor in our lives then we care to admit, especially with trading. Because with luck as a variable, we have to come to terms with the fact that we do not have as much control as think we do, it's really quite scary if you think about it.

    If any of you get the chance to see the new Woody Allen film "Match Point", it focuses on the role luck plays in our everyday lives and how little control we really have. I look forward to Taleb's new book "Black Swans" as it will go more into how luck plays a role in society as a whole vs just the trading environment.
     
    #60     Feb 5, 2006