Success during the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis Taleb appeared to be vindicated against statisticians in 2008, as he reportedly made a multi-million dollar fortune during the Financial crisis of 2007â2008, a crisis which he attributed to the failure of statistical methods in finance [20][21]. Universa, where Taleb is advisor, made returns of 65% to 115% in October 2008 in its approximately $2 billion âBlack Swan Protection Protocol.â [22] Taleb's financial success coupled with his earlier predictions have seen him catapulted to prominence. He has appeared on numerous magazine covers and television shows to discuss his views [23] [24] Taleb started being treated as a "rock star" in Davos 2009 in which he had harsh words for bankers [25] [26]. In an article in The Times, Bryan Appleyard described Taleb as "now the hottest thinker in the world". [27] The Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman proposed the inclusion of Taleb's name among the world's top intellectuals, citing "Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, particularly in the financial markets. His book, The Black Swan, is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events." [28] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nassim_Taleb
Like the 1987 self-reported success, this is the same. Taleb feeds the press and they eat it up, but the facts up to then did not suggest he did. Sure a lot of people bought OOM puts and Paulos, Tavakoli, and Melcher (at Balestra) shorted the ABX, but they can prove their returns, where's Taleb's proof. Don't believe it any more than the 1987 myth followed by the failed trader shoved to research stint and the closed Empirica fund. Taleb is a PR manipulator, yet he calls Nobel Laureates charlatans. It seems to be Freudian projection.
Excuse me? You owe me an apology. These are facts. I am entitled to doubt the veracity of his claims of wealth, since I have heard directly from people who worked with him that puts doubt on his assertions. Reportedly means he told a reporter... As I mentioned before, I read the interview where he cited an August 2003 article, and I have articles of others quoted in more specific ways. He uses hype and grandstanding.
Well, I guess I kind of assume that Fortune would verify those claims, maybe that's naieve then? Don't know, but to hear the stories they sound credible. The most recent stuff doesn't prove an ability to trade, though. He was probably selling short from 95 onward to 2000.
Come on, Greg, directly? Who are you? I'm not saying you can't doubt him, since having $100 million in NYC is equivalent to maybe $5 million in Kansas City, but, either way, unless you've talked to his working network of people, I don't think you can make that claim.
How many of the edits on that Wikipedia article were made from Nick's IP address? I am sure he monitors it nightly.
As a long term observer (8 years) of Taleb, to my recollection He did mention his 2-3 year bleed at Empirica and âquittingâ but Greg does have a point about no proof of his OVERALL performance - which has to be taken into questionâ¦
I agree. So far he has not given a single example of a true Black Swan in the markets. Nor has anyone else I am aware of. It is possible there are not even true Black Swans in *any* area of life. For example, an alien invasion is not a Black Swan, plenty of people think it is possible even though they would say the probability in any given year is low. Ditto for a global pandemic killing half or all of the population, the sun exploding, nuclear armageddon, a giant asteroid hitting earth and causing human extinction etc etc. All these things are known as possibilities, so by definition they can't be Black Swans. A true Black Swan would be something like the earth disappearing instantly for no known cause - basically something radically outside the "laws" of science/physics. One must also assume that at least one human being imagined the possibility of actual black swans too, before they were discovered. So even his metaphor is flawed. He should have called it the Chromatic Yeti.