I like respect both Taleb and Dawkins. If a debate should ensue, I don't think either man is going to score meaningful points on the other guy's turf.
And some more recent comments from Eric: http://falkenblog.blogspot.com/2009/05/perimeter-institute-to-save-economics.html Bonus pic: http://dailyspeculations.com/Surf.Expert.jpg
interesting blog, rodney. great photo also, other than that was surf with no sleep for about 3 days. here is the retrospective that went along with the photo. http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1386 he seems to be ramping up the rhetoric. somehow i doubt he made "billions" for the fund. with that said, he is a great guy to chat with. looking forward to the Taleb v Dawkins debate tour.... surf
I am almost positive that NT is not a billionaire. I think I heard somewhere that he blew up his Empirica fund (or "experiment," whatever he calls it) a couple of years ago. By "blew up" I mean "bled to death." I challenge anlyone to find evidence of his net worth exceeding $1B. I like most of his thoughts, btw. A little pompous, but very smart.
He was an advisor to that fund, but are the billions self-reported? There seems to be a myth about Taleb, but most of it seems self-perpetuated. If he made millions in 1987, then why was he toiling as a trader at Paloma where he bombed and tolerated being shoved to research? What about the closed Empirica fund supposedly closed because he was bored. It seems every time he wants more public attention he rants about the obvious or calls Nobel Laureates charlatans. As for his self-reported predicting the meltdown, he never stuck his neck out or challenged a specific company or its earnings when it mattered. In one newspaper interview he self-cites a NYTimes article in 2003 on Fannie and Freddie's interest rate models, but that wasn't the prime cause, and there were at least a dozen articles with other experts talking about the derivatives postions and the weakness of the models and their assumptions before Taleb spoke up. It seems his "genius" is at self-promotion, and a lot of people blindly follow.
No one ever said Taleb was worth > 1b. his fund is claimed to have earned "billions" for his investors--which would easily put NT's net worth at over 100 million--provided standard fees and not overkill on overhead as is likely with the expert--he is known for frugality in operations. surf
No one predicted the extent of the crisis better than Taleb. He clearly talks about it in TBS. Some people knew housing was a problem, but no one thought it would bring down the entire western economic system. We still havent come to grips with the facts the system may never reappear and what takes in place could be much worse than most are imagining.
I'd like to see a credible audit report. As for Taleb, I'd like to see the proof of earnings. To date, he seems to perpetuate a myth of his earnings. Hope he made some serious cash, but he may have given a lot back in the upturn. He lacks credibility, so he'll have to prove he did as well as he says before I would believe anything this guy says.