Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

Discussion in 'Options' started by Pekelo, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. tomorton

    tomorton


    The use of aircraft as weapons on 9/11 could be a Black Swan as defined by NT but the market itself was already in a downtrend. From that point of view, the subsequent drop in the Dow etc. was a downtrend continuation, and nobody should have been surprised that price went further down. That particular event and type of event was obviously a surprise, but it is part and parcel of downtrends that some event will occur that has a further negative effect on price. The reverse for uptrends as its also possible to have a positive Black Swan
     
    #141     Feb 3, 2018
  2. ironchef

    ironchef

    I was thinking about Taleb all last week and today while trading. This is not Black Swan by any stretch of the imagination, but traders that practice his method had a good payout last week and today.
     
    #142     Feb 5, 2018
  3. truetype

    truetype

  4. qxr1011

    qxr1011

    ===Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything===

    no questions to taleb

    overall i like the guy, but he is not a trader and never will be,


    but even if he would be a great trader, still no questions :)
     
    #144     Mar 8, 2018
  5. ironchef

    ironchef

    #145     Mar 8, 2018
  6. ironchef

    ironchef

    I was going to ask how to deal with Black Swans. How do you?
     
    #146     Mar 8, 2018
  7. Barbell strategy. Take no risk and extreme risk at the same time. One way to implement that would be to buy T-bills and use the interest income to buy far OTM puts.
     
    #147     Mar 8, 2018
    ironchef likes this.
  8. Saltynuts

    Saltynuts


    Sounds like a horrible strategy - in another thread a study was shown regarding different options strategies and which ones were most and least profitable over the long term - selling puts was the best, so buying puts would generally be the worst. Combine that with limited profit T-bill interest...
     
    #148     Mar 8, 2018
  9. ironchef

    ironchef

    Most studies don't go to the tails of the distribution, usually only out to about 10%-20% OTM, so normal distributions applied. Maybe when you are way out there, DOTM, normal probability distribution does not work and the payoff functions are through the roof once disaster hits?

    However, like buying lottery you may have to wait a long time? I am a non professional just speculating, so correct me if I am wrong.
     
    #149     Mar 8, 2018
  10. Saltynuts

    Saltynuts

    Its just not good Ironshef, its just not good...
     
    #150     Mar 8, 2018