Nassim Taleb: Ask Me Anything

Discussion in 'Options' started by Pekelo, Jun 29, 2017.

  1. sle

    sle

    Well, they looked like a pretty poor idea in November 2008 (a year after inception), especially the SPX/SX5E/NKY worst-of basket :) at that moment it certainly looked like a lose-lose situation for both Berkshire and the dealers...
     
    #111     Jul 12, 2017
  2. Yeah, although even then I thought they waz genius...
     
    #112     Jul 12, 2017
    sle likes this.
  3. ironchef

    ironchef

    I knew that specific case but not aware BRK made most of their profit selling puts then and now as he/she said?
     
    #113     Jul 12, 2017
  4. sle

    sle

    Well, it was a good trade at the time, but with the change in their margin agreements that ship has sailed (their 10y CDS is with 90 handle at the moment anyway).
     
    #114     Jul 12, 2017
  5. Yeah, the trade has run its course, it would seem...
     
    #115     Jul 12, 2017
  6. sle

    sle

    Dude, do you check your bbg messages? :)
     
    #116     Jul 12, 2017
  7. I thought they were 100-year options. The counterparty is a fool, that's for sure. Even Taleb in the AMA says he sells ATM options.
     
    #117     Jul 12, 2017
  8. sle

    sle

    I have first-hand knowledge of these trades :)
    No, the maturities were reasonable, from 10-15, though the sizes were scary. Counterparties where fools for other reasons. Unlike a few other famous option trades (like the MS corporate option trade), these were easily hedged and vol risk was laid off (there usually is a fair amount of demand for long dated vol, mostly by insurance companies). However, most dealers did not take into account a garden variety of risks that were introduced by the combination of non-margined nature of the trade and the really large sizes . That's where it got hairy.
     
    #118     Jul 12, 2017
  9. how much leverage was he using? BRK is pretty big
     
    #119     Jul 12, 2017
  10. sle

    sle

    I think the total notional was maybe around 30 yards spread across 15-20 dealers. It's impossible to translate that into anything like a leverage number because the firm itself is so correlated to the underlying.
     
    #120     Jul 12, 2017