no no no, surf. thank YOU!! What a great picture! Whoever that photographer is should get some proceeds from the book
How do you know? Do you have money in his fund? It's easy for me to back up my position -- years and years of stellar returns and one blow up. Back yours up.
Cheap? Quite the opposite. Very rare vintage. Matter of fact, I'm not even sure there is such a thing. Bottles are probably empty. *****
you asked the most important question on this thread. his book is on the way to me; if there is anything in the book pertinent to your question, i'll let you know.
unfortunately, he no longer talks about finance. considers any severe market event a "grey swan" and is currently now only interested in bigger issues--finds finance boring. so sorry, the book or speaking to him in person is not going to help directly in this regard/ surf
Surf: Thanks for your response. Taleb currently seems most interested in enhancing his persona as a philosopher.
How about examining the flip side of Taleb's argument and looking at the risk of no Black Swan event. This may be more relevant to today's environment and more relevant to the money management industry. One could make a strong case that "..the greatest risk of all is not taking risk" (AIG Commercial). In other words attempting to be overly prepared for a black swan event, or in fact prepared at all, could and in fact has lead to imminent disaster quicker than had an actual black swan event occurred. Furthermore, a true black swan event might have reprecussions so far outside of the norm that current protections would seem useless (ie. capital controls/seizures, lawlessness, bailouts, currency debasement, etc.). While I am not overly familiar with Taleb's work, there seems to be many moving parts and aspects to this issue worthy of exploration. In today's forgiving money management environment, it's a wonder more aren't exercising their free OPM option in a major way.
That is precisely the irony in all of this. Logic and history dictate that it is impossible to know how much time will pass before a black swan event, so trying to capitalize on it is no less foolish than ignoring it's possibility. It's no surprise to me, hence, that Taleb has resorted to book selling and shut down his original hedge fund to focus on different goals other than alpha generation.