Niederhoffer = 0 to nine figures TWICE, including a very public and humiliating blowup, and much-less-publicized recovery. Taleb = wrote a couple good (not great) books.
The statistical concepts in the book are compulsory reading... BUT... the truth is... Black Swan events are almost always huge social tragedies... Plane crashes, terrorist events, epidemics, market/economic crashes, military coups, etc. Any man who CHOSES to base his livelihood... On profiting from every disaster and tragedy that afflicts humanity... Is a sociopath... Who will do anything for money without emotion. I chose to earn a living in a different manner. Not even to mention the ** hard fact ** that market volatility... Has sunk to historic lows the last 3 years... (Partly because of a new paradigm of uber-computerized market efficiency)... And buying volatility has been the worst possible strategy. Guys like Taleb are always fighting the last war... And making a killing by doing it.
Search my handle on Google Images Cygnus Atratus For me its also about accepting that we might be fools to probabilities, but also we should always be on guard for a 50 Sigma event !
Cute. A statement very far from reality. Niederhoffer: anything but 0 to anything but 9 figures. Let's not confuse a good record -- other than the occasional blow-up... excuse me, black swan -- with great marketing and connections; or confuse fund growth through raising OPM with organic growth through absolute performance. Taleb: has always been a real trader's trader, first and foremost, who very successfully traded everything under the sun for institutional prop desks, then for himself as an options MM at the Merc. A rare breed indeed, particularly in this age of extreme specialization. Any fair comparison of the two (arguably a bad idea in the first place) would have to be far more nuanced than that naive, black-and-white statement.
Wtf are you talking about? A trader's trader? The guy is a windbag now. Markets "bore" him, and he gets pissed when people talk to him about them. He's very smart and very interesting, but he's decided he's a philosopher. Niederhoffer has achieved organic growth like maybe no one in history. Do you have any idea how much he manages? How much of it is his own? Seriously, you couldn't be more wrong. Where do you get this stuff?
wow all you folks most know these people/situations very well. ever do business with these people? maybe you read a book or met them at a seminar and thought they seemed believable enough? i'll venture a guess that none are as great or foul as made out in these posts.
Does anyone have the inside word on what happened to Empirica version 1.1? thank you in advance, surf
Did anyone go seem him in NYC? The Black Swan showed up today from Amazon. I assume no one has read it yet.
yeah, we were there. thought this was a cool marketing tie-in--see attachment. the launch was interesting to say the least, complete report coming soon. regards, surf ps. thanks for the photos and everything......else, annaland--see you in marketannasurferland soon......