99..% of the people watching the cobert report dont know about the fund so I dont see why that is such an important element. The fund was a failure, too whihc is why Taleb doesnt discuss it much.
I just finished reading Black Swan. Interesting book overall, but Fooled by Randomness is way better. The theme of Black Swan - unexpected event, and the themes of people attributing skills to their success and unexpected events to failures are nice repetitions of what was previously said. One of the examples, just by observing millionaires and trying to discover what it takes to become one is fallacy since this study does not take into account all those who failed. Now, the part of dealing with Black Swans by using of Mandelbrot fractal geometry is way over my head in respect of understanding how it can help with protection against BS. Taleb says that Mandelbrotâs concepts are simple for most of us to understand. But I can not understand even a bit how fractal geometry can help in financial markets. Can anyone explain this or point to me in the right direction. Until then, second part of book is another philosophical theorizing (my opinion only of course). Regards, redduke
I suggest getting The Misbehavior of Markets by Mandelbrot. This is an easy read; you may find it a little too easy if you are program oriented. One of the things he says is that markets show long term dependence. Markets are lumpy distribution wise and that markets tend to jump or show price gaps, etc. There is no trading plan in this book but I got a lot out of it.
This BLACK SWAN refers to the swashbuckler with Tyrone Power, a passable pirate escape movie. The treasure hunters claim their discoveries are the result of a reasonable business plan, and they have already made more than one major find. The movie is much better than the book.
Taleb is yesterday's promoter... Though his book remains compulsory reading for the basic concepts. [/B][/QUOTE] The basic concepts are better done in any competent introductory stats course. But Taleb deserves a little pity. He's aging and desperate to be relevant. Then there's the pay. This may be his top selling book year, and at most he'll net around $300K from his publishers, and that is before paying his agent and assuming sales stay at current levels. No wonder he's jealous of the success of us in the business.
<b>Then there's the pay. This may be his top selling book year, and at most he'll net around $300K from his publishers, and that is before paying his agent and assuming sales stay at current levels. </b> 300k??!! he stated in NYC that the book royalties just might allow him to break even on his book purchases.... surf
300k??!! he stated in NYC that the book royalties just might allow him to break even on his book purchases.... surf [/B][/QUOTE] He probably meant that he's buying books himself to artificially keep his ratings up, if so, he's not making much on his books at all.