You REFUSE to apply even the most basic critical analysis to Taleb... 100% of your posts are hearsay and rumors or Taleb promotional talking points. (1) Taleb's investment results are not public... for whatever reason. (If public... just give me a link). (2) Therefore, like > 90% of "hedge funds"... Taleb is running a "skimming operation"... Whereby through endless media whoring... He manages $1 billion or what ever... And then just takes 2-3% annually... And keeps on talking and talking and talking. (3) Volatility has collapsed since 2003... for virtually all securities. That's why Niederhoffer is cleaning up by selling volatilty... And Taleb cannot possibly be doing well. (4) Niederhoffer's blow-ups have no connection to Taleb. (5) And worst of all... Taleb's "Black Swan" = "Fat Tails" on a distribution. Pro option traders have been running... Custom distributions with "fat tails" for far out-of-the-money option pricing... For at least 20-25 years... It's discussed at length in probably the most popular options book... In McMillan's 1986 edition. Yawn 1,000,000 times. Taleb is yesterday's promoter... Though his book remains compulsory reading for the basic concepts.
Lets just say I am not impressed with his latest comments or book offering. Further, I know of several professionals working for top tier banks who successfully manage multi-sigma risk, or have had input into risk management protocols that will manage multi-sigma adverse risk. They don't write books about it, because their employers pay them not to. Obviously Mr. Taleb is highly educated and has found an interesting and provacative subject to capitalize on. Apparently a relatively uneducated public is willing to pay to read subject matter that they don't understand....Its surprising and amusing to see... Steve
Thank you both for posting the New Yorker article and the Colbert video. I am reading and enjoying Fooled by Randomness, although at times it makes me want to go out and shoot myself for even thinking that I might be able to make a living trading. If Empirica is a successful fund, my impression is that investors view it as a form of insurance and are willing to accept small negative returns during a "normal" year. He makes money by collecting his management fee. (I have no data to support this view, it's just what I gathered from the description of his investment style, only long out of the money vol) Many hedge fund traders, and every salary + bonus trader at a big firm clearly grasp the concept that while you might make $10mm annually for the firm and $1mm for yourself you risk running into a black swan that could cost $500mm... of someone else's money . How many times have we seen a trader blow up and move to another firm?
That made me wonder: Are all 15 minutes not the same? Does someone know near the end that it is almost over? Is the 14th minute, by definition, not as enjoyable as the 1st? Does sweetness gradually diminish fom the 1st minute until 14:59? If so, I only want my 8 minutes and 37 seconds of fame.
Oh man, that Colbert guy is annoying! As much as I'm interested in hearing Nasim Taleb, I couldn't make it through the posted clip because of Colbert.