His stop is so tight that if he took the same trade he is taking now, over and over, he will end up in the black, regardless if he waits for confirmation or not. The reward, when he is eventually right, will make up for the small loses and then some. All penetrating the bottom will tell you is where the next likely place for profit taking will be, as your little graphic illustrates pretty perfectly. Waiting for confirmation is too conservative. You are better off selling a bear bar closing on its low on its way to confirmation than you are on waiting for confirmation. You can always get out if you are wrong and still make a little profit.
I have this on my desktop as a reminder that nobody is that much better than a flip of a coin, so to adapt we need sufficient r:r, selling as close as possible to swing highs and buying as close as possible to swing lows inevitably provides this much needed r:r. I don't usually criticise traders for waiting for a confirmation of a double top, but every strategy has its own pros and cons, waiting for confirmation would require either placement of a stop within noise or reduction of size if stop was to be outside the established range. To each, his own
I am looking at multiple rejections on the daily chart resulting in a flat top, OK correction potential flat top price action. There is another key factor that I saw on the daily chart, but this won't be revealed publicly. It may well turn out to be yet another area of price consolidation, so be it.
1. Agree with this line of thinking. 2. My view.... is that there is no such thing as "confirmation", so stop looking for it. 3. If you are Asian and your last name really is Pu, I mean no offense. But if I were in your shoes and picking my handle, I would have gone with "Master Poo".
Nas... "Possible Topping Box". Could be short-term, could be bigger. Strategies should take this into consideration until resolved.