Roughly speaking, the Nasdaq has gone from 5 to 1 to 2 thousand in the past few years. But where's Nasdaq 3000? 4000? 5000? 1000 Points is nice, but is this all we're going to get?
If you believe in the secular bear market theory, then maybe this is about it. I'm sure Joe Batapaglia has a different view.
First, IMHO i do belive that the Nasdaq will soon be a penny stock composite....wait.....it already is. Take the Nasdaq 100 from 98-2000. Take a look at the prices of these babies......and now compare the current Nasdaq 100 with the latter.....are you getting the idea. IMHO i still belive the Nasdaq is overvalued. I think 1500 is about the proper value.....no need to get into that because im a trader not an investor and such a number is just side info. Also, look at what has been leading the Nasdaq, the mid caps as one would say. The so called leaders Msft, Intc, (shit, not much left) are basically not moving much. Also, if you look at the so called "daytraders" and what they are trading now vrs 99 when the Naz was 5000, gives you an idea as well. Eventually i could see MSFT and INTC moving over to NYSE along with DELL. As daytrading has died, so has the nasdaq (of course youll have ur ET Daytraders yelling how well they are doing trading Nasdaq stocks, LOL,) So in a nut shell, Nasdaq is a dying market, even with stocks like RIMM, i dont think you will see anything close to 5000. Also, when i was Daytrading back in 99, it was the Internet stocks, and the CMGI's on the Nasdaq that helped to push it to 5000. No more Dot.coms, no more CMGI's, ...and a stock like RIMM is not going to carry the Nasdaq much higher (yes im short a lshit load of calls on RIMM at the underlyer price of 93. so there is some bias) I do belive folks, this is all the nasdaq has to offer, 2000 and maby a little above it after BUSH pulls off the OSMA capture....
I would never short a stock like RIMM. I learned the hard way. This chart below makes even more sense to me now than the day I posted it in May 2, 2003. Basically we've taken out most key retracements so if I had to guess I would say the next most likely is 43.24 on the QQQ after that it's up towards 60 which will be about 3000 on the Nasdaq I believe. All guess work for conversation and has nothing to do with how I trade. http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=11925&u=mrwsm&a=MRWSM TA Charts&id=242