Inspired by Lundy's thread I got to thinking. We all know the Nasdog is in the sewer but is technology dead? Is the economy doomed? Will we ever see the ATH in our life time? If you bought 1k QQQ today how long, if ever, for them to hit 120 again. The floor is open.......
beleive it or not, it all depends on when we get a new weekly high on the respective indexes. I'll have my analysis ready when we do.
I wasn't so much thinking of this from a technical point of view, rather a macro opinion poll of the state of the worlds biggest tech market. Anyway, I'm not really sure that a weekly high clears the way for new highs in the Nas. Cheers
I say 20-30 years, but that's not an alternative on this poll. Even after the massive declines of the last 2 years, tech is still easily the most overvalued sector of the U.S. markets (not that I'm a buy and hold guy or anything like that). It's gonna take a while for the Naz to quadruple in size, especially considering the potential downside it has over the next couple of years.
Well I think we safely say that 20-30 years is as good as never for most of us. I haven't worked out the compounded return over that time but it's not attractive. However, on the flip side we look at the Naz as what it is now but that is assuming that there will not be new technologies/bubbles come along and we just repeat that same process. Everyone says no way but why not I wonder.
What you have to say about bubbles is completely true. In fact, I would expect something like that to happen again somewhere down the road (perhaps 20-30 years from now?). That's just human nature. There's also this weird romanticism about technology stocks. For some reason, people get all caught up in how new technological advances "are gonna change their life so much", that they stop looking at whether or not these companies are actually making enough money selling these products to actually justify their valuations. I highly doubt if this will happen again in the near future though.
For what it's worth, it took the Dow 25 years to reach the same levels as prior to the '29 crash. So these things can take a while to work themselves out.