Discussion in 'Trading' started by Lojanica, Oct 11, 2011.
Close = open. No range. We are gonna explode Wed or Thurs.
So thats how you know if the markets are going higher?
If im not mistaken the dow is up over 1000 points in only 5 trading days and the SPX is up over 100 points. How much more upside do you wish for. Are you think the SPX 1350 or 1500 by Dec?
For which instrument?
Which way do you think and why? Are you basing this theory solely on the no range (doji candlestick) trading day? How often is a doji candle leading to explosive moves??...I do not know the answer but doubt it is better than 50% of the time.
Take it FWIW. The SP500 range was a 3 month low. We may have 1 to 2 more days of low volatility then expansion.
The way I envision range is that as we approach congestion we compress as buyers and sellers more or less agree as to where price should be. At present in the sp500 we are compressing into 1200 which has been an upper range and tested 6 times in the last 3 months. Interestingly we may compress into 1200 and range remains constant as price edges higher. That is until we either explode up through the previous price ceiling and or down back to retest the low. As price compresses at the top (or bottom of a range) volatility diminishes until it breaks out.
My first thoughts..the lowest ranges of two and three days respectively is how Toby Crabel measured prices losing momentum in a trend. All things being equal you would think that a three month low would be a macrocosmic redaction and continuation of said. I'l be interested in a study where the opposite is proven true: parabolic moves and squeezes.
Jolly fantastic exchange.
So, just curious...when you see this type of doji candle into upper end of the range do you short, go long, or set shorts below this level and buys above this level?
Looking for a change in trend. Then instead of "buying dips" you sell the rallies.
Afterhours is looking mighty weak. The trend may be changing as we speak.
Throw in a little juju and shake dem chicken bones and voila' you have a plan.
Trend changes are tricky though. They rarely are super smooth. Usually a shakeout first then a reverse.
Wow nothings changed. A little range expansion today up into the very tippy top of the 3 month range which was resoundly rebuffed. The lines in the sand are drawn folks........
One more day of consolidation before any big move (guessing again). The likely direction is down but the market is the market. One thing is for sure is we are compressing at the upper end of the range. We had consolidation and range narrowing . I would expect a slight increase in range tomorrow but not much movement with regard to the close---still range bound within a range bound market.. Market is very news sensitive now so any negative news will send this spinning lower next week or late friday.
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