Nanuk Trap: The State of the Union is Strong

Discussion in 'Trading' started by shortie, Jan 26, 2010.

Spy By Friday Close

  1. +4%

    3 vote(s)
    13.0%
  2. +2%

    4 vote(s)
    17.4%
  3. flat

    7 vote(s)
    30.4%
  4. -2%

    3 vote(s)
    13.0%
  5. -4%

    6 vote(s)
    26.1%
  1. better replace the SOU with IOU's from China
     
    #11     Jan 27, 2010
  2. i`m the only vote for 4% still....:D
     
    #12     Jan 27, 2010
  3. so, you are the one who is short here!!! :D :cool:
     
    #13     Jan 27, 2010
  4. today's observations/speculations/plans:
    1. sold soon before FOMC for 3.11 (one fill was very close to FOMC, maybe a bit of Vol spike, no fills after FOMC)
    2. at close the strangle is quoted 2.93/2.96 (easy money it seems)
    3. the best price was actually in the morning 3.21 (i believe that's what i saw, there may have been better prices earlier when i was not looking at the strangle). i guess the possibility of a large move before FOMC contributed to that)
    4. left short strangle until after Obama's speech. the hypothesis is that he won't move the market much, but IV will drop after Obama's uncertainty is removed.
     
    #14     Jan 27, 2010
  5. It's the end of the month. Be wary of "window dressing". :eek:
     
    #15     Jan 27, 2010
  6. was iPad mentioned anytime during the speech?
     
    #16     Jan 27, 2010
  7. Q12

    Q12

    Not yet... sure to come though. I did hear something about forgiving college loans though - just add it to the deficit and let the taxpayers cover it!
     
    #17     Jan 27, 2010
  8. out at 2.73 - easy money :)

    BTW, not many nanuks got trapped by Prez.
     
    #18     Jan 28, 2010