Defining what percentage of today's high oil and gasoline prices is due to excessive speculation, driven by Iran fears, is something of a guessing game. "I put the Iran security premium at about $8 to $10 (a barrel) at this point, which still puts crude at about $90 or $95," said John Kilduff, a veteran energy analyst at AgainCapital in New York. The fear premium is the froth above what prices would be absent fears of a supply disruption_ somewhere in the $80 to $85 range for a barrel of crude oil. It means that even with the extra cost put on oil from Iran fears, prices are at least another $10 higher than what demand fundamentals would dictate. Why? Financial speculators. What should the price of oil be if left to conventional supply and demand market fundamentals? Canada's the largest supplier of imported oil to the United States, which now actually produces more than half of the oil it consumes. Production and delivery costs for a barrel of oil from Canada are about $75 a barrel. The market-fundamentals cost for a barrel of oil is in that ballpark; above that, speculation sets the prices. "It's as simple as that," said Gheit, who has testified before Congress and called for regulatory limits on speculation in commodities markets. Historically, financial speculators accounted for about 30 percent of oil trading in commodity markets, while producers and end users made up about 70 percent. Today it's almost the reverse. Read more here: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/02/21/139521/once-again-speculators-behind.html#storylink=cpy
Neither can the money supply. But the money supply is the cause of the lion's share of the speculation, or rather, what makes it so possible.
I hope it doesn't make your nipples hard. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2328624&highlight=nipples#post2328624
Does stalking run in your family? You place me on your ET "buddy list" and you follow me around from thread to thread and can't get past a throw-away line I made years ago in response to an unsolicited sexual reference. Seriously, what is the matter with you? Seek help.
Relative to gold, you are correct, but I was not referring to gold/crude. I was challenging the claim that prices were up because of printing and devaluation of the USD (USD/crude), so basing it on the $DXY is relevant and telling.