This is a thread about pure Price Action trading on naked Charts without any indicators. Ideas, Trades can be posted and of course any discussion about them. For me it is an endeavor since I am new to pure PA trading though I started trading from Charts only without any indicators a long time ago. But then I chose the systematic approach route and since then I never looked back. But now all is automated what can be and so I have a lot of free time to practice PA trading here. For me it is a strict reversal trading approach based on Head and Shoulders and maybe Triple Tops or Bottoms as variation here. The goal is to achieve good Reward-Risk-Ratios (RRR) per trade, so that any win rate becomes less important to stay profitable. It is also the goal to minimze drawdowns so I do not look on daily or weekly charts because then the stops get wide.
I will start with a trade here on USDCHF long, which I just took a few minutes ago as demo trade, because I am still practicing a lot. It had a support around 0.9336, my stoploss is below 0.9322, my first target is 0.9370 with a second main target at 0.9393 for today. So far I had 4.6 pips drawdown since I started being long here. Any (other) opinions about this trade here ?
From my analysis (Yesterday) CHF is the strongest currency vs CAD being the worst. CHFCAD is currently flying. That would be my first step. Context, Context, Context. From a PA standpoint We're in a downtrend but made a higher high. Now we could make a double bottom but the immediate trend is still down. We would need to reverse in order to establish a double bottom. USDCHF 15min Volpri has a nice journal trading PA only. I've not dug deep into it but it left good memories. Here we have our bullish impulse. We can enter long with a stop below the double bottom. But usually I want to buy what's in the upper right corner. Here the chart is going through the bottom right corner (Sell). Price is actually continuing lower
On a larger time frame, this market is in a trading range that appears to be drifting down. If you frame a trading range, you'll see prices hugging the bottom (lower highs) of the range which tells me that a break out to the down side is the most likely outcome. Personally, I wouldn't look to buy it. If there's a rally, I'd probably short at around 0.95.
Looks like your target hit if you held? I use a DDF (Directional Day Filter) found in a trading book - one of those so many ignorantly say to not to bother with. It takes first 5 minutes trading average and plots for the first 60 minutes of the day. For currencies I use 2am-3am European open. Then look to how many bars median price is above 1st5min average and how many are below to judge trend of the day. If they about equal then expect a choppy trendless day. Works overall 75-80% of the time. For today USDCHF was projected to be up - take only long signals, which it was for the most till PPI reading.
Forgot to add to my previous post, of course visually noting approx 1st5min avg and eyeballing how many bars above/below can be done to keep chart completely "naked" as well.
Welcome to naked chart trading. That's the way to go. Decades ago, I started with thousands of indicators and triangles and rectangles and rays and arcs and butterflies and Elliot / Idiot waves and fibos etc. Now I have nothing except a zig-zag line. You have potential.
Interesting............very interesting https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/directional-day-filter.3691/
Yup. Left out one other clue inadvertently and that is noting where price closes out the 1sthour trading period. Closes much above reinforce an up day and vice versa. Closes near average tend to suggest a neutral or trendless day.