Nailing the Open (ES, YM) in the U.S

I have tried to anticipate the open for a long time in the U.S. equity index markets. Many times if you get this trade right you get 60 or 80 ym points(600-800 es points) in a matter of minutes. That leaves your day open to pursue other interests. I would really like this thread to become a discussion of new ideas to do this.

Some background information I have struggled to ever get this type of method off the ground. I just can't get the consistency that I like. I'm also quite aware this is not the hallmark of good trading as a business. This type of method (nailing the open) is more like a puzzle for me or a game with entertainment value. IMO there is nothing wrong with having a little fun while trading if the size is small. I'm talking real small, 1 mini lot.

There is a popular opinion that the best prospects to do this is in the DAX or FESX. Yes sometimes this is true but many times not. Hence, the problem with consistency. It may be a pipe dream that this is even possible, but I think it may be possible. Definitely not every day but two times a week or so.

 

Why does anticipating (guessing) the open lead to 60-80 YM points? I'm not seeing the connection...

 

I think I should make one thing clear. I'm talking about entering to anticipate the open in the U.S. from the time of 8:20 a.m. (et) to 9:25 a.m.

 

You get the 60- 80 pts, or more from a very fast move in one direction. This tends to happen often enough right near the open.

 

Great idea. Here are the odds = 50/50

Place the bet with a STOP and you are good to go.

Proper use of STOPS and able to recognize a sideways opening and ability to change tactics you will be surprised how nice early trading can be. ..

 

Yea, and how the heck do you get 600-800 points in ES?

 

I hope you meant 6-8 points. I havent seen too many 800pt range days on the ES

 

you're not thinking on the days when economic indicators are released at 8.30 am:

*Employment data
* retail sales
* ppi and cpi
* durable orders
* personal income
* gdp
* initial claim every thursday

With so many this kind of "guessing" is more like a 50/50 bet.

 

Everyday is 50/50 and not when reports are released, but at 0930est when pit opens.

ps, you missed the big salami report, it comes out next Friday.

Ok, have fun, time to have breakfast and get set to make some bacon. Have a good day.

 

I have never traded on the floor. It is my understanding that the SP futures moves 100 pts per 1 point in the SP cash. This is give or take not accounting for fair value. For example 1449 to 1450 in the cash is a 100 pt move in the future.