Numerical Price Prediction spawned an offshoot I called Dynamic Probability trading, which morphed into a “triple-zone” strategy that, after being fine tuned for accuracy, led me right back to a superior version of Numerical Price Prediction, which has prompted me to conclude I should try buying AUDJPY and AUDUSD once again. I expected AUDJPY and AUDUSD to rise on Friday, based on my confirmation intraday trend line, but they did not follow through, and an analysis of why not led me to add one moving average beyond my confirmation trendline which I am calling an “ultimate direction moving average.” Based on the current status of this final indicator, the Aussie pairs still cannot be trusted to turn north for a prolonged period of time. Yet I purchased call contracts with an approximate 1:1 win-to-loss ratio without any confirmation from my trigger lines anyway based on the fact that my confirmation trendline was neutral and the exchange rates were located just above second-level statistical support. Since current conditions are not evidencing above-average levels of liquidity/volatility, the statistical odds of price regressing toward the mean should theoretically outweigh the probability of price dropping down to third or fourth level statistical support (with the fourth level being the most extreme). However, since the instruments are still technically bearish, rather than wait around until expiry in the hope of banking the full $40-$50 value of each contract, I’m going to place orders now to sell the contracts at $12.00 each, so that I clear $10.00 per contract after the $1.00 fee for opening and $1.00 fee for closing each position. This way I won’t have to worry about the final outcome, will not need to monitor the progress of the trades, and can start the week off on a positive note, taking my cumulative earnings back above the $442.75 worth of gains I managed before last week’s continued experimentation put me in a hole I had to try digging myself out of on Friday. UPDATE: As anticipated, the exchange rates bounced off of second-level statistical support, so hopefully I can begin adding to my balance from here based on the relationship between price and a set of measures that include my: (1) ultimate direction moving average, (2) confirmation moving average, (3) intraday moving average, (4) short-term moving average, (5) fluctuating moving average, (6) low-volatility price range [second-level statistical support and resistance], (7) intermediate-volatility price range, (8) extreme-volatility price range [fourth-level statistical support and resistance], and (9) global price range. This puts me only $17.00 above where I was a week ago, but as I said, I'm perfectly happy to simply start things off on a positive note.
Given that EURJPY was sending buy signals in just about every way possible, I purchased a call contract at roughly a 1:1 reward-to-risk ratio. But again, I'm not going to wait around until expiry for the full value of the contract 14 hours from now. Since I'm already beginning to accumulate gains, this time I'm going to place an order to exit the position at a value of $10 for an $8 net profit.
One of the things that annoys me about Nadex is that every time I want to log in, I have to readjust the screen because unless the browser window is full screen (I virtually never have my browser window full screen) the LOGIN button is off the bottom of the page where it is inaccessible... Something else I find just as annoying is whenever I click on an asset I want to trade, the program pastes the order ticket off the bottom of the page where I cannot get to the Place Order button, and I always have to move the ticket to click on it...
AUDJPY is bouncing around too much for me not to grab profit while I have the opportunity, so I'm going to exit the position right now...
The validity and reliability of the forecast model I'm using has reached a level such that it probably no longer makes sense to maximize the time interval between placing orders and expiry. Consequently, I think I'm going to start choosing contracts from now on that will allow approximately eight hours for trades to develop rather than 16 to 23 hours. If I had done that for my last four trades, I would've already collected full value at expiry on every one of them by now. All of these trades are in-the-money right now, despite the fact that two of them show a Profit/Loss value of $-0.50 and $-12.25.
As of today, this thread is done. Numerical Price Prediction has evolved into a precise set of steps for trading foreign currency pairs that yes, can indeed enable me to purchase NADEX binary option in-the-money contracts profitably—especially after spending this last week or so working out all the "kinks."
God willing, as I continue to refine the design and application of my "perfected" chart setup, how much money I make within a given 24-hour market cycle might eventually become entirely up to me. Deuteronomy 8:17-18
I will no longer be actively trading this NADEX Demo account. I wanted to see if the Numerical Price Prediction system, which makes market forecasts based on a careful analysis of the average immediate, intermediate, intraday, and daily price ranges in concert with meticulously selected moving averages might make it possible to trade foreign currency pair derivatives successfully on this exchange...a question which has now been answered to my satisfaction.