My experience with GBPUSD last night has led me to conclude it is time to place implicit trust in the ability of my forecast model to alert me as to when a legitimate reversal in the intraday trend has been initiated. But this demanded that I return to the question of how to avoid being jerked around when an asset is in whipsaw mode. In the past, I experimented with looking to volume or rate of change as a means of gauging whether the amount of momentum supporting a given trend was sufficient to warrant taking action, but to no avail. The results were always unsatisfactory. I also toyed with the possibility of defining a zone within which I could safely assume that there existed a lack of volatility and liquidity which would make executing a trade ill advised, but such zones never appeared to fit with the outcomes of actual price action, or at least, not until just now. I just took another stab at establishing such a zone, this time based on the parameters I have adopted as the polished, perfected, finalize settings for my Dynamic Probability Trading system, and this time, the zone DOES appear to fit with the outcomes of actual price action. Now I will need to try it out to see if it in fact possesses the ability to yield the kind of results I have in mind when put to the test in the context of real-life trade situations.
I did not trade any indices this morning because I needed a pullback to enter long positions, but one never materialized. However, USA Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s talk at the Economic Club of New York might have provided a very sweet opportunity for me instead if the markets don’t turn against me...
Turn against me they did not. (Only 12 minutes left until expiry.) This should more than make up for the problems I had with GBPUSD yesterday.
Things are going so well adapting Dynamic Probabilty Trading to Nadex binary options that I decided to log on to my live Nadex account and link it to my new bank account in preparation for funding it so that it is all set up and ready to go the moment I decide I want to resume trading via their exchange. But unfortunately, when I opened the platform, little happened beyond a little blue busy indicator (Loading, Please wait...) spinning around and around and around, so apparently, the problems I was having with Nadex had to do with Nadex and not with my using an older model laptop, as I was doing before. I don't know why the demo account I opened for this experiment was operating so smoothly, but regardless, it looks like I won't be going back to Nadex after all!
I've now established for myself that trading using the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADEX) platform is not going to work for me due to its shortcomings in terms of performance, along with the apparent fact that if I wished to, I could apply the Dynamic Probability Trade strategy to their system successfully. So I pretty much no longer have any reason to trade my NADEX demo account except for fun, which I am doing right now in order to try out the use of my new "dead zone" in dictating position entry points. Though the market is kind of dead right now, USDCAD is on the verge of emerging out from beneath the bottom of the zone, so I am purchasing a single in-the-money put contract with expiry schedule three hours away to see if the rate remains beneath the strike price up until that time. The timing is not at all ideal in that this interval will engulf the opening of the London session (during which anything might happen) but perhaps this will be a good test for gauging the power (or lack thereof) of the dead zone. UPDATE: The return on this trade is currently at $7.75 (50¢ above what is pictured below), more than a third of the full value of the contract, which is merely $20.00. So I'm going to go ahead and pocket that amount right now (a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush) and simply note visually whether the rate remains below the strike price three hours from now.
Though the major indices offered better trade opportunities than foreign currency pairs on Monday (from my perspective), that was not the case on Tuesday, Wednesday or today. With only thirty minutes left until expiry, it appears the Dynamic Probabilty system with "Dead Zone" has again helped me select what probably have a good chance to turn out to be winning in-the-money binary option contracts. (I don't understand why GBPUSD is still showing a negative Profit/Loss at this time).
If these trades would be so kind as to not reverse their general behavior too much within the next forty-five minutes, the three potential winners should outweigh the one potential loser... UPDATE: AUDJPY has decided to turn in my favor for the moment, so I am going to sell the contract now while the going is good, and plan to hold on to the remaining three contracts until expiry. Unlike the contracts I purchased previously, these were all out-of-the-money trades.
I purchased one last round of binary option contracts. Their risk-to-reward ratios were ridiculous, but I wanted to get my demo account balance, which was $25,000 when I started, up above $25,300 by the close of today's New York session, and I don't think I can count on there being enough volume/momentum left in the market to push the rates up above out-of-the-money strike prices.