On April 2nd I wrote that the original reason I started this thread—to investigate whether my Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) swing method of trading could enable me to purchase NADEX binary option in-the-money contracts profitably—had been fulfilled; but that I would continue this little exercise primarily to help inform me as to how much profit I might expect to generate per day if I ever returned to trading my Nadex live account, and to help to keep my skills sharp, such as they are, until I could resume full-time trading. Since then, the demo account balance has gone from $27,396 to $31,202 so that I am no longer curious about how much daily profit the previous and other versions of my system might hypothetically/theoretically be able to generate using the Nadex platform. And having since found out that the dynamic proprietary moving average envelopes I came up with a while back had already been created by Lee Leibfarth in 2006 or earlier, I compared mine with his Adaptive Price Zone indicator only to discover I liked mine better, and that evaluating which of those in my personal arsenal worked best and using them in accordance with the moving-average-price-range-based forecast models I rely on did indeed sharpen my results. Expiated's favorite two versions of his pseudo Adaptive Prize Zone envelopes: All of that to say that this Nadex trial is over—at least for the time being. So I am now ready to take what I have learned back to my Tickmill and FOREX demo accounts and see by how much my possible new insights can increase my daily take when trading through standard/traditional brokers in preparation for the resumption of full-time trading via my OANDA live account in September, since I find that, in the final analysis, I am still unwilling to go back to trading Nadex live, even though I was almost ready, and even preparing, to do so.
My new insights did indeed enable me to sharpen the graphics plotted on my OANDA Forex charts. But there is now nothing more for me to do there until September, when I can once again resume full-time intraday trading... I love the clarity provided by my carefully designed/selected moving averages: At this point, my grasp of price action is, if you will excuse the hyperbole, infinitely better than it was when I was active on NADEX from 2012 to 2014, and in this last month I've seen that with a $25,000 demo account I can make anywhere from $30 to $1000 or more in a single day. This is also due in part to the fact that when I first started with NADEX in November 2011, the service did not offer five-minute binary options. But the problem is, though by using a chart setup similar to the one above I can purchase an in-the-money contract for $80 and make a $20 profit in five minutes or less with almost 100% confidence, I cannot justify trading with an 8:2 risk-to-reward ratio, even with a nearly perfect track record. On the other hand, I also cannot justify purchasing an out-out-of-the-money 2:8 risk-to-reward contract because, even though the reward far outweighs the risk, the odds that the asset will rise 2 pips in the next five minutes is far less than the near 100% probability that it will not fall 2 pips (perhaps not even as high as 20%). But given the effectiveness and accuracy of the above chart setup, yet an inability to do anything with it via tradition Forex brokers until this September, I've decided to return to my NADEX demo account once again to see if I might not be able to apply my now much more elucidating approach to analyzing price action to trading U.S. index and Japan 225 twenty-minute at-the-money binary option contracts, which also were not available back when I was trading NADEX from November 2011 to June 2014. Assuming I can adapt Numerical Price Prediction to this alternative asset class, the probability of a given index climbing above the strike price (the indicative price at the time of the order) in twenty minutes as opposed to just five minutes should, theoretically, rise significantly. I'm hoping I can do this at a nearly 100% success rate as well, in which case, I ought to be able to resume trading through NADEX much more profitably than what would be possible through OANDA with the same-sized trading account.
NADEX offers the S&P 500, DOW and NASDAQ from 6:40 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. here in Los Angeles, and the Japan 225 from 4:00 p.m. to 10:20 p.m.
I was still asleep when Nadex opened up 20-minute binary option trading this morning a little over an hour ago, which would have been the ideal time to get in—just a little after the major U.S. indices initiated a sustained climb. So now I am relegated to attempts at deducing the level at which they will rise no further. To make things even more difficult, I will have to compensate for the difference between the prices quoted by OANDA and the prices displayed by NADEX, which differ by about 18 with respect to the four NASDAQ put contracts I purchased. (I still need to determine the differences in regard to the DOW and the S&P 500.) Nonetheless, I will be looking forward to shorting the DOW later on in that my charts suggest to me that today this index is overall bearish. (Oops! I have to take that back in that the price of the index has climbed high enough that it is now slightly bullish.) Okay, I'm satisfied that Nadex 20-minute (major index) binary options can be traded just as successfully using Numerical Price Prediction as Nadex 5-minute (Forex) binary options.
I like the way Dex Fx Markets sets up its orientation and describes its training... I thought that perhaps they might even be able to enhance my 90%+ success rate. (TNT stands for trend, negate, trade.) But their free membership gave me access to one example (EURUSD) of their 5-minute, and one example of their one-hour, trade signals; and after comparing their actual live charts to mine, I think the reality of the situation is that it is my charts that enhance theirs rather than the other way around (their 99% success rate notwithstanding) so I'm doubtful they really have much to offer me.
This is likely to have been my last Nadex demo trade for a while. I have made a final decision for the time being, and have gone back to live Forex trading via my OANDA account.