So, is that the metric, up days over down days in a given time frame? Cause that too has zero predictive value for next days returns Yes, I thought you said that a consecutive streak of up or down days constitutes a trend and wanted to point out that probability of N consecutive up or down down days is very close to what we observed in the market in the past 60+ years.
First, you need to decide a trend. I have showed I decided Gold was in up trend on Monday. Then in an up trend, up days overwhelm down days. If you trade futures, you can simply long in up trend and short in down trend. So the most important thing is you need the ability to decide a trend. Deciding trend is not like a magic that is 100% sure, it is a high probability thing, and when you find your judgement is wrong, you need to have stop. I won't tell you how to decide a trend. But I can point out when I see a trend has formed.
That guy and the copy cat marketers like him are making a lot of waves these days. I don't care. More suckers on the exchange will hopefully get the spreads down. Liquidity providers. Nadex does have awful bid/ask spreads. Just need to pick your spots and go for expiration trades or be consistent and accurate enough to pay for the overhead. Having said that, making a few bucks trading AUD/USD on 10-20 pip noise with Nadex ITM binaries is actually not that hard. Since Binaries can have fixed cost/payout, the idea is to get on the right side of the r:r ratio or be on the right side of the required win rate or a little combo of both. Then use risk reduction strategies like the equiv of Iron Butterflies or if the range and/or trend is going in one direction, then doing whatever buying selling a higher strike in the same direction is called. Know the range for the time period, see if price is at near the range, then get in on an ITM binary. Basically risk is 70-75 max to make 25-30 max. That's a loser prospect over time without a risk reduction plan. So either cut'm short if they get down 50 or hedge with something similar to an Iron Butterfly or go same direction with a higher ITM. I also do a lot of OTM binaries and just set orders to get out on the touch rather than hope/pray for the positive expire. R:R is usually better than 1:1, so again, being on the right side of the required win rate helps. I only do those during expected periods of movement and go for strikes well within the expected range which for currencies is the London open through London close. I set 'em up, go to bed. If they've cashed over night, yay. If not, I evaluate. If ATR is put in , I might hedge out and set up the equiv of an Iron Butterfly or go in the same direction with an ITM if the setup is there. I do this regularly with f**k around money. I don't trade these for a living or claim that I can make 10000000% in a month. I make more than enough to cover my sushi/saporro habit, though. Long story short... it is possible to be profitable with Nadex binaries. It isn't anywhere near as easy as the marketing and youtube kids will make it out to be. And the costs are higher compared to other instruments and markets. It's retail land. Just gotta be better than the average retail trader.
Scam. Nadex knows no customer will have positive expectation trading with them but they strongly represent the opposite.
As discussed extensively on this thread, Nadex earns it's money from commissions Their business model could care less if the customer has positive expectations or not from a financial standpoint, although it's in their best interest if they do and continue to trade on the exchange. If you think they're a scam and have any evidence whatsoever of this, put your money where your mouth is and report their illegal behavior to the CFTC who regulates them.
If you think you have a possibly worthwhile predictive ability in this area, find a different instrument to trade your ideas. I am skeptical of your predictivr ability but it is up to you to decide if you have one, and to find a better trading instrument than binary options.
I think exactly this, too. If you have something worthwhile to trade, there's always a better way than with Nadex, and one with the odds less stacked against you.
Agree it is a Scam/Con game. Nadex will take a commission and the market maker will eat you with the wide spread. You cant compete with the faster connection and co location the market maker has, so you cant be a profitable market maker yourself. Not worth the effort. Dont feed Nadex with fees and dont feed the market maker by paying the wide spreads. Dont be a sucker.
I'm not sure the word "scam" means what you all seem to think it means. There are plenty of illiquid securities with wide bid ask spreads, that doesn't make them a scam. There are plenty of instruments you have difficulty predicting, that doesn't make them a scam. You can make a market on Nadex, you can be the counterparty to all those punters you think are sure losers. The real question is, given your posted beliefs, why aren't you making money hand over fist on Nadex?