What do you think is the probability of the down or up streak for N days? What do you think the market has realized since, say, 1950?
There are many many things that market has not realized. But if you learn market by reading books, then you can see none of them. Anything useful will be worthless if public are aware of it.
That's all truisms. So is "buy cheap, sell rich" and "always wear clean underwear". The reality is that number of consecutive up or down days is consistent with random probability, it only differs by 1-2%. Now, it does not mean that you can't follow trends (there are quant funds that do with with great success), but it means that if you pay 5% spread to get in and out, you are going to be bleeding fairly soon.
I said in up trend it was 31 down days vs 61 up days. I just checked, in the down trend right before election date it was 9 down days vs 0 up day. You said it only differs by 1-2%. So we are not saying the same thing. Let's just finish this kind of foolish talk.
Agreed. Everything you've said is foolish, or at the very least unsupported and unsupportable assertions or worthless aphorisms, so the sooner you stop talking the better off we'll all be!
This is a Weekly binary options trade I placed on Monday, as I decided GOLD came into up trend on Monday. Your Order has been executed Your order was executed on: Mon Mar 20 13:44:07 EDT 2017. Here are the details of your matched trade: Contract: Gold (Apr) >1244.5 (1:30PM) Expiration: Fri Mar 24 13:30:00 EDT 2017 Direction: BUY Quantity: XXX Price: 26.75 Your positions and balances have been updated.
From Nadex time and sales I see you laid on a whopping 4 contract position, so you put an entire $107 into this. You either don't have much faith in your superior knowledge or have yet to translate that superior knowledge into much money! https://www.nadex.com/sites/default.../20170320_timeandsales.pdf?0.3113761566784403
Yes, I put most of my capital in daily contracts. This was first weekly trade I placed in a few months. And with this trade I had a couple other weekly trades in different strikes with the same direction. Of course far OTM calls should take smallest part of capital. I only began to trade gold since 10 days ago, as I just found gold is the most profitable instrument to trade. This is my performance on gold futures. For 2 day's trading. https://collective2.com/details/110343799