Both of you stay remote from understanding my words. The long streak of one color in roulette happens once very one million times roulette spins. The phenomenon that market closes more up days in an up trend and more down days in an down trend has been through out market history. You lack basic probability education.
Dont ask the kid such hard questions, although he could be a genius prodigy trader: jesse livermore re incarnated 50 years after his death
If I tell you how to identify a trend, you would further ask how I judge today's close by analyzing yesterday's close and yesterday's trading range, and how I make decision based on today's market open and when to make a high probability call, and how I place a stop, etc,etc. These are things no one would like to expose to public. I already tell too much on some market skills. If you would like to know further, send 10K to my paypal account.
Funny to remember that i too went through a phase like this - until my p/l overcame my arrogance, and i actually did the bloody quantitative work!
That's why you could ask a question such as " how to identify a trend"? People who ask such question are all losers.
You've got a lot of maturing and learning to do my friend. It pays to know your own limitations. I highly recommend you read the book Fooled by Randomness, as you clearly have been.
Easy! I have two strategies, Hindsight Trend Following and Hindsight Mean Reversion, both are doing great!